What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37 | 18 Jul 2010 → 06 Mar 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 27 | 30 Mar 2019 → 09 Nov 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 19 | 20 Dec 2015 → 09 Apr 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 18 | 11 Nov 2018 → 05 Mar 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 18 | 23 Aug 2009 → 09 Nov 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 17 | 26 Sep 2006 → 09 Dec 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 16 | 03 Dec 2005 → 08 Mar 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 15 | 14 Sep 2024 → 07 Dec 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 15 | 27 May 2023 → 24 Oct 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 14 | 30 Apr 2022 → 18 Sep 2022 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primeira Liga | 1066 | 205 | 19.2% | 9 | 33 |
| UEFA Champions League | 298 | 67 | 22.5% | 10 | 10 |
| UEFA Europa League | 145 | 35 | 24.1% | 3 | 8 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 42 | 12 | 28.6% | 4 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 38 | 7 | 18.4% | 3 | 8 |
| Taça de Portugal | 24 | 4 | 16.7% | 4 | 6 |
| Intercontinental Cup (Toyota Cup) | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 3 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 | 3 |
| FIFA Club World Cup | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 0 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39 | 6 | 15.4% | 12 |
| 2025 | 59 | 13 | 22.0% | 10 |
| 2024 | 55 | 9 | 16.4% | 15 |
| 2023 | 51 | 8 | 15.7% | 15 |
| 2022 | 47 | 10 | 21.3% | 14 |
| 2021 | 51 | 11 | 21.6% | 11 |
| 2020 | 39 | 9 | 23.1% | 11 |
| 2019 | 46 | 3 | 6.5% | 27 |
| 2018 | 40 | 6 | 15.0% | 12 |
| 2017 | 42 | 8 | 19.1% | 10 |
| 2016 | 46 | 6 | 13.0% | 18 |
| 2015 | 40 | 5 | 12.5% | 14 |
| 2014 | 43 | 8 | 18.6% | 8 |
| 2013 | 47 | 8 | 17.0% | 10 |
| 2012 | 41 | 7 | 17.1% | 11 |
| 2011 | 41 | 11 | 26.8% | 9 |
| 2010 | 54 | 4 | 7.4% | 28 |
| 2009 | 54 | 10 | 18.5% | 18 |
| 2008 | 34 | 15 | 44.1% | 5 |
| 2007 | 44 | 12 | 27.3% | 6 |
| 2006 | 48 | 8 | 16.7% | 17 |
| 2005 | 41 | 10 | 24.4% | 8 |
| 2004 | 44 | 10 | 22.7% | 11 |
| 2003 | 43 | 8 | 18.6% | 11 |
| 2002 | 34 | 8 | 23.5% | 8 |
| 2001 | 35 | 12 | 34.3% | 6 |
| 2000 | 36 | 8 | 22.2% | 11 |
| 1999 | 39 | 9 | 23.1% | 8 |
| 1998 | 44 | 8 | 18.2% | 13 |
| 1997 | 39 | 10 | 25.6% | 8 |
| 1996 | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | 6 |
| 1995 | 44 | 8 | 18.2% | 9 |
| 1994 | 24 | 7 | 29.2% | 5 |
| 1993 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1992 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 1991 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1990 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1989 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1988 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1987 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1986 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1985 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1984 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1983 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1982 | 12 | 5 | 41.7% | 4 |
| 1981 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1980 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1979 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1978 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1977 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1976 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1975 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1974 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1973 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1972 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1971 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1970 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1969 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1968 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 3 |
| 1967 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1966 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1965 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 7 |
| 1964 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1963 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1962 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 7 |
| 1961 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 8 |
| 1960 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1957 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
Over 555 matches (Jan 2015 – Nov 2026), SL Benfica drew 94 where the draw model expected 102.4 from those particular fixtures — about 8 fewer, or 0.9 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 135.3 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.