What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21 | 01 Mar 2019 → 21 Jul 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 17 | 10 Jul 2013 → 21 May 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 15 | 10 Aug 2025 → 14 Mar 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 11 | 26 May 2024 → 04 Aug 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 10 Aug 2018 → 07 Oct 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 16 Sep 2017 → 31 Mar 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 21 Nov 2022 → 31 Dec 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 7 | 12 Sep 2015 → 31 Oct 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 7 | 31 Aug 2014 → 26 Oct 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 11 Jun 2000 → 12 Nov 2000 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super League | 375 | 91 | 24.3% | 3 | 25 |
| Chinese FA Cup | 111 | 20 | 18.0% | 2 | 7 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31 | 10 | 32.3% | 5 |
| 2025 | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | 13 |
| 2024 | 33 | 8 | 24.2% | 11 |
| 2023 | 33 | 10 | 30.3% | 5 |
| 2022 | 37 | 9 | 24.3% | 9 |
| 2021 | 21 | 6 | 28.6% | 5 |
| 2020 | 23 | 7 | 30.4% | 4 |
| 2019 | 33 | 2 | 6.1% | 21 |
| 2018 | 38 | 10 | 26.3% | 11 |
| 2017 | 32 | 7 | 21.9% | 6 |
| 2016 | 34 | 10 | 29.4% | 4 |
| 2015 | 32 | 8 | 25.0% | 7 |
| 2014 | 33 | 5 | 15.2% | 13 |
| 2013 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2012 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2011 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2006 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2005 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 2004 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2003 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 2002 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2001 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 2000 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 7 |
| 1999 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1998 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1997 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1996 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 1995 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
Over 382 matches (Mar 2015 – Oct 2026), Beijing Guoan drew 95 where the draw model expected 91.1 from those particular fixtures — about 4 more, or 0.5 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 95.2 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.