What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 17 Apr 2025 → 12 Jul 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 12 | 19 Oct 2020 → 06 Jan 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 11 | 14 Sep 2023 → 09 Nov 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 11 | 24 Jun 2021 → 04 Aug 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 10 | 24 Sep 2025 → 05 Nov 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 01 Mar 2023 → 13 May 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 20 Jun 2024 → 21 Jul 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 23 Aug 2026 → 18 Oct 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 15 Mar 2026 → 22 Apr 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 8 | 10 Sep 2020 → 11 Oct 2020 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie A | 451 | 126 | 27.9% | 1 | 12 |
| Copa do Brasil | 70 | 19 | 27.1% | 2 | 6 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35 | 11 | 31.4% | 8 |
| 2025 | 44 | 10 | 22.7% | 12 |
| 2024 | 46 | 10 | 21.7% | 9 |
| 2023 | 46 | 12 | 26.1% | 11 |
| 2022 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2021 | 55 | 14 | 25.5% | 11 |
| 2020 | 28 | 4 | 14.3% | 11 |
| 2019 | 48 | 16 | 33.3% | 7 |
| 2018 | 42 | 13 | 31.0% | 6 |
| 2017 | 40 | 11 | 27.5% | 8 |
| 2016 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2015 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 2014 | 44 | 12 | 27.3% | 8 |
| 2013 | 41 | 12 | 29.3% | 5 |
| 2012 | 38 | 14 | 36.8% | 3 |
Over 398 matches (Apr 2015 – Oct 2026), EC Bahia drew 107 where the draw model expected 112.8 from those particular fixtures — about 6 fewer, or 0.6 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 107.0 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.