What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 13 Mar 2022 → 16 Apr 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 7 | 06 Mar 2024 → 14 Apr 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 7 | 12 Sep 2021 → 20 Oct 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 6 | 08 Nov 2025 → 13 Dec 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 6 | 29 Oct 2023 → 03 Dec 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 6 | 30 Nov 2022 → 07 Jan 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 6 | 28 Nov 2021 → 23 Jan 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 5 | 01 Feb 2026 → 21 Feb 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 5 | 29 Sep 2025 → 25 Oct 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 5 | 02 Feb 2022 → 22 Feb 2022 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie C | 206 | 73 | 35.4% | 0 | 8 |
| Coppa Italia | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19 | 8 | 42.1% | 5 |
| 2025 | 35 | 16 | 45.7% | 6 |
| 2024 | 37 | 13 | 35.1% | 7 |
| 2023 | 37 | 15 | 40.5% | 6 |
| 2022 | 37 | 9 | 24.3% | 8 |
| 2021 | 19 | 5 | 26.3% | 7 |
| 2020 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 5 |
| 2019 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 3 |
| 2018 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 207 matches (Jul 2018 – Apr 2026), AZ Picerno drew 73 where the draw model expected 64.3 from those particular fixtures — about 9 more, or 1.3 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 62.7 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.