What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 03 Nov 2024 → 15 Mar 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 8 | 06 Aug 2023 → 23 Sep 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 7 | 11 May 2024 → 16 Jun 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 7 | 28 May 2023 → 08 Jul 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 7 | 30 May 2021 → 17 Jul 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 7 | 14 Apr 2021 → 22 May 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 7 | 10 Sep 2016 → 03 Nov 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 7 | 24 Apr 2016 → 29 May 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 6 | 12 Sep 2026 → 24 Oct 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 6 | 31 Aug 2025 → 04 Oct 2025 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J1 League | 228 | 63 | 27.6% | 6 | 14 |
| Emperor's Cup | 46 | 14 | 30.4% | 0 | 3 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 6 |
| 2025 | 41 | 14 | 34.2% | 6 |
| 2024 | 40 | 14 | 35.0% | 7 |
| 2023 | 39 | 8 | 20.5% | 8 |
| 2022 | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 5 |
| 2021 | 40 | 12 | 30.0% | 7 |
| 2019 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2018 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2017 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2016 | 36 | 8 | 22.2% | 7 |
| 2015 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2014 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2013 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2012 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2011 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2010 | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | 1 |
| 2009 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2008 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2007 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2006 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2005 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
Over 255 matches (Aug 2015 – Oct 2026), Avispa Fukuoka drew 70 where the draw model expected 68.5 from those particular fixtures — about 1 more, or 0.2 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 62.0 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.