What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26 | 13 Apr 2019 → 09 Feb 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 12 | 23 Sep 2006 → 14 Jan 2007 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 11 | 05 Mar 2018 → 11 Aug 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 26 Aug 2018 → 09 Dec 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 8 | 31 Mar 2007 → 20 May 2007 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 7 | 21 Jun 2020 → 26 Jul 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 7 | 14 Oct 2000 → 02 Dec 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 5 | 21 Feb 2020 → 11 Jun 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 5 | 20 Jan 2019 → 18 Feb 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 5 | 14 Jan 2018 → 11 Feb 2018 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primeira Liga | 166 | 32 | 19.3% | 7 | 26 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 20 | 2 | 10.0% | 7 |
| 2019 | 34 | 4 | 11.8% | 20 |
| 2018 | 33 | 5 | 15.2% | 11 |
| 2017 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 4 |
| 2007 | 16 | 5 | 31.3% | 8 |
| 2006 | 14 | 2 | 14.3% | 11 |
| 2001 | 19 | 6 | 31.6% | 5 |
| 2000 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 7 |
Over 102 matches (Aug 2017 – Jul 2020), CD Aves drew 15 where the draw model expected 25.3 from those particular fixtures — about 10 fewer, or 2.4 standard errors, more of a gap than most, though roughly one subject in twenty looks like this by chance.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 6 times running. A flat league average would have expected 26.0 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.