What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23 | 27 Apr 2014 → 04 Feb 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 21 | 16 Feb 2013 → 24 Sep 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 19 | 04 Mar 2022 → 02 Oct 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 13 | 26 Apr 2025 → 04 Oct 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 16 Dec 2020 → 12 Feb 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 12 Nov 2022 → 11 Mar 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 10 | 17 Aug 2008 → 24 Oct 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 24 Jan 2026 → 22 Mar 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 07 Apr 2024 → 18 Aug 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 23 Dec 2018 → 01 Mar 2019 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bundesliga | 518 | 134 | 25.9% | 1 | 22 |
| 2. Bundesliga | 170 | 47 | 27.7% | 2 | 9 |
| DFB-Pokal | 48 | 8 | 16.7% | 2 | 5 |
| Club Friendlies | 17 | 5 | 29.4% | 0 | 4 |
| UEFA Europa League | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 1 | 6 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35 | 10 | 28.6% | 9 |
| 2025 | 40 | 9 | 22.5% | 13 |
| 2024 | 37 | 8 | 21.6% | 9 |
| 2023 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 9 |
| 2022 | 34 | 5 | 14.7% | 19 |
| 2021 | 41 | 9 | 22.0% | 8 |
| 2020 | 33 | 8 | 24.2% | 5 |
| 2019 | 38 | 8 | 21.1% | 8 |
| 2018 | 37 | 12 | 32.4% | 5 |
| 2017 | 38 | 13 | 34.2% | 6 |
| 2016 | 35 | 13 | 37.1% | 5 |
| 2015 | 45 | 9 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 2014 | 35 | 4 | 11.4% | 21 |
| 2013 | 37 | 6 | 16.2% | 21 |
| 2012 | 37 | 14 | 37.8% | 5 |
| 2011 | 37 | 12 | 32.4% | 7 |
| 2010 | 39 | 9 | 23.1% | 9 |
| 2009 | 37 | 14 | 37.8% | 5 |
| 2008 | 36 | 7 | 19.4% | 10 |
| 2007 | 35 | 9 | 25.7% | 9 |
| 2006 | 18 | 6 | 33.3% | 3 |
Over 450 matches (Feb 2015 – Oct 2026), Augsburg drew 114 where the draw model expected 106.5 from those particular fixtures — about 8 more, or 0.8 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 112.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.