What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18 | 20 Jun 2020 → 23 Nov 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 17 | 29 Jan 2017 → 07 May 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 15 | 21 Sep 2010 → 18 Dec 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 14 | 09 May 2009 → 26 Sep 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 14 | 09 Apr 1995 → 16 Sep 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 13 | 14 May 2016 → 23 Oct 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 11 | 04 Mar 2026 → 13 May 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 11 | 08 May 2025 → 20 Sep 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 10 | 14 Jan 2023 → 01 Mar 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 10 | 20 Nov 2016 → 05 Jan 2017 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| La Liga | 1272 | 357 | 28.1% | 3 | 18 |
| UEFA Europa League | 150 | 28 | 18.7% | 3 | 9 |
| Copa del Rey | 107 | 30 | 28.0% | 1 | 6 |
| UEFA Champions League | 34 | 9 | 26.5% | 2 | 5 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 28 | 4 | 14.3% | 0 | 9 |
| Supercopa de España | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 1 | 2 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 | 3 |
| Club Friendlies | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 38 | 8 | 21.1% | 11 |
| 2025 | 55 | 14 | 25.5% | 11 |
| 2024 | 51 | 15 | 29.4% | 6 |
| 2023 | 48 | 11 | 22.9% | 10 |
| 2022 | 43 | 10 | 23.3% | 6 |
| 2021 | 51 | 23 | 45.1% | 4 |
| 2020 | 42 | 10 | 23.8% | 18 |
| 2019 | 42 | 11 | 26.2% | 7 |
| 2018 | 42 | 17 | 40.5% | 6 |
| 2017 | 55 | 14 | 25.5% | 17 |
| 2016 | 55 | 8 | 14.5% | 13 |
| 2015 | 62 | 15 | 24.2% | 7 |
| 2014 | 51 | 14 | 27.5% | 8 |
| 2013 | 40 | 9 | 22.5% | 9 |
| 2012 | 65 | 16 | 24.6% | 8 |
| 2011 | 50 | 13 | 26.0% | 9 |
| 2010 | 42 | 9 | 21.4% | 15 |
| 2009 | 59 | 12 | 20.3% | 14 |
| 2008 | 44 | 11 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 2007 | 40 | 12 | 30.0% | 6 |
| 2006 | 39 | 13 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2005 | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 10 |
| 2004 | 46 | 11 | 23.9% | 9 |
| 2003 | 40 | 11 | 27.5% | 7 |
| 2002 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 8 |
| 2001 | 40 | 12 | 30.0% | 7 |
| 2000 | 37 | 11 | 29.7% | 6 |
| 1999 | 40 | 15 | 37.5% | 7 |
| 1998 | 43 | 12 | 27.9% | 5 |
| 1997 | 47 | 18 | 38.3% | 8 |
| 1996 | 41 | 16 | 39.0% | 5 |
| 1995 | 41 | 13 | 31.7% | 14 |
| 1994 | 43 | 10 | 23.3% | 8 |
| 1993 | 16 | 3 | 18.8% | 6 |
| 1988 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1986 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1985 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1984 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1983 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1982 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1978 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1977 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1976 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1973 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1971 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1970 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1969 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1968 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1967 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1966 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1964 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 9 |
| 1957 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1956 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
Over 584 matches (Jan 2015 – Nov 2026), Athletic Bilbao drew 156 where the draw model expected 150.4 from those particular fixtures — about 6 more, or 0.5 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 148.6 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.