What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 19 Oct 2024 → 20 Dec 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 11 | 20 Oct 2023 → 16 Dec 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 5 | 14 Dec 2025 → 18 Jan 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 5 | 12 Oct 2025 → 08 Nov 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 5 | 12 Apr 2025 → 29 Aug 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 5 | 18 Jan 2025 → 16 Feb 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 5 | 15 Sep 2024 → 04 Oct 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 4 | 17 Sep 2025 → 28 Sep 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 4 | 15 Sep 2023 → 30 Sep 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 3 | 09 Mar 2026 → 21 Mar 2026 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie C | 114 | 32 | 28.1% | 0 | 11 |
| Club Friendlies | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20 | 8 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 2025 | 37 | 11 | 29.7% | 5 |
| 2024 | 39 | 10 | 25.6% | 11 |
| 2023 | 19 | 3 | 15.8% | 11 |
Over 115 matches (Sep 2023 – Jul 2026), Atalanta U23 drew 32 where the draw model expected 35.1 from those particular fixtures — about 3 fewer, or 0.6 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 34.8 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.