What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23 | 28 Sep 2025 → 03 Jan 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 21 | 22 Feb 2025 → 19 Jul 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 19 | 14 Jan 1998 → 10 May 1998 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 15 | 25 Sep 2021 → 10 Jan 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 15 | 04 Jan 2015 → 04 Apr 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 15 | 06 Oct 1982 → 29 Jul 1983 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 14 | 12 Sep 2020 → 12 Dec 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 14 | 30 Jan 2016 → 30 Apr 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 14 | 30 Sep 1996 → 26 Dec 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 13 | 31 Jan 2017 → 04 Apr 2017 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1157 | 320 | 27.7% | 0 | 16 |
| FA Cup | 435 | 83 | 19.1% | 2 | 7 |
| League Cup | 262 | 49 | 18.7% | 2 | 8 |
| Championship | 138 | 41 | 29.7% | 1 | 13 |
| UEFA Europa League | 71 | 14 | 19.7% | 15 | 15 |
| Club Friendlies | 34 | 9 | 26.5% | 7 | 7 |
| UEFA Champions League | 31 | 4 | 12.9% | 4 | 7 |
| UEFA Conference League | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 5 | 5 |
| FA Community Shield | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 0 | 1 |
| UEFA Super Cup | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 2 |
| Intercontinental Cup (Toyota Cup) | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 51 | 8 | 15.7% | 10 |
| 2025 | 64 | 10 | 15.6% | 22 |
| 2024 | 55 | 13 | 23.6% | 9 |
| 2023 | 54 | 10 | 18.5% | 11 |
| 2022 | 43 | 9 | 20.9% | 9 |
| 2021 | 46 | 7 | 15.2% | 13 |
| 2020 | 40 | 8 | 20.0% | 14 |
| 2019 | 46 | 9 | 19.6% | 10 |
| 2018 | 50 | 13 | 26.0% | 8 |
| 2017 | 51 | 11 | 21.6% | 13 |
| 2016 | 51 | 16 | 31.4% | 14 |
| 2015 | 51 | 10 | 19.6% | 15 |
| 2014 | 40 | 9 | 22.5% | 9 |
| 2013 | 43 | 10 | 23.3% | 8 |
| 2012 | 45 | 15 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2011 | 43 | 15 | 34.9% | 4 |
| 2010 | 52 | 16 | 30.8% | 10 |
| 2009 | 47 | 13 | 27.7% | 10 |
| 2008 | 50 | 14 | 28.0% | 9 |
| 2007 | 40 | 13 | 32.5% | 6 |
| 2006 | 46 | 16 | 34.8% | 5 |
| 2005 | 42 | 11 | 26.2% | 11 |
| 2004 | 44 | 12 | 27.3% | 9 |
| 2003 | 41 | 11 | 26.8% | 8 |
| 2002 | 44 | 11 | 25.0% | 11 |
| 2001 | 46 | 15 | 32.6% | 8 |
| 2000 | 46 | 18 | 39.1% | 5 |
| 1999 | 46 | 10 | 21.7% | 8 |
| 1998 | 46 | 8 | 17.4% | 19 |
| 1997 | 51 | 14 | 27.5% | 6 |
| 1996 | 52 | 12 | 23.1% | 14 |
| 1995 | 45 | 12 | 26.7% | 8 |
| 1994 | 57 | 14 | 24.6% | 9 |
| 1993 | 34 | 12 | 35.3% | 8 |
| 1992 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1991 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 2 |
| 1990 | 13 | 1 | 7.7% | 12 |
| 1989 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1988 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1987 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1986 | 13 | 6 | 46.2% | 2 |
| 1985 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1984 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1983 | 16 | 2 | 12.5% | 10 |
| 1982 | 16 | 3 | 18.8% | 5 |
| 1981 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 6 |
| 1980 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 3 |
| 1979 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1978 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1977 | 21 | 7 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 1976 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1975 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 8 |
| 1974 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 2 |
| 1973 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1972 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1971 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1970 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1969 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1968 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1967 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1966 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1965 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1964 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1963 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1962 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1961 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 6 |
| 1960 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 5 |
| 1959 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1958 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1957 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 3 |
| 1956 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1955 | 7 | 5 | 71.4% | 1 |
| 1954 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1953 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1952 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1951 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1950 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1949 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1948 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1947 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1946 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 7 |
| 1939 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1938 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1937 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1936 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1935 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1934 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1933 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1932 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1931 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1930 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1929 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1928 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1927 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1926 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1925 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1924 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1923 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1922 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1921 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1920 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1915 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1914 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1913 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1912 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1911 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1910 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1909 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1908 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1907 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1906 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1905 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1904 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1903 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1902 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1901 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 1 |
| 1900 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1899 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1898 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1897 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1896 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1895 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1894 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1893 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1892 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1891 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1890 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1889 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1888 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1887 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 1886 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1885 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1884 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1883 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1882 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1881 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1880 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1879 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
Over 602 matches (Jan 2015 – Nov 2026), Aston Villa drew 124 where the draw model expected 150.5 from those particular fixtures — about 26 fewer, or 2.5 standard errors, more of a gap than most, though roughly one subject in twenty looks like this by chance.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 6 times running. A flat league average would have expected 152.2 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.