What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35 | 10 Feb 2022 → 20 Oct 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 21 | 26 Dec 2014 → 11 Apr 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 20 | 25 Sep 2010 → 27 Dec 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 18 | 22 Apr 2018 → 22 Oct 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 16 | 14 Jan 2018 → 15 Apr 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 16 | 10 Jan 2004 → 20 Mar 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 16 | 12 Mar 2002 → 18 Aug 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 15 | 22 Oct 2021 → 09 Jan 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 15 | 10 Sep 2002 → 09 Nov 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 14 | 29 Aug 2015 → 04 Nov 2015 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1271 | 305 | 24.0% | 20 | 27 |
| FA Cup | 458 | 110 | 24.0% | 4 | 6 |
| League Cup | 256 | 53 | 20.7% | 0 | 8 |
| UEFA Champions League | 237 | 52 | 21.9% | 0 | 12 |
| UEFA Europa League | 84 | 15 | 17.9% | 0 | 9 |
| Club Friendlies | 39 | 7 | 18.0% | 0 | 7 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 27 | 11 | 40.7% | 0 | 5 |
| FA Community Shield | 25 | 6 | 24.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 22 | 5 | 22.7% | 2 | 7 |
| UEFA Super Cup | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 54 | 11 | 20.4% | 11 |
| 2025 | 63 | 14 | 22.2% | 11 |
| 2024 | 54 | 10 | 18.5% | 11 |
| 2023 | 58 | 14 | 24.1% | 11 |
| 2022 | 52 | 3 | 5.8% | 35 |
| 2021 | 59 | 12 | 20.3% | 13 |
| 2020 | 53 | 9 | 17.0% | 12 |
| 2019 | 60 | 16 | 26.7% | 13 |
| 2018 | 58 | 10 | 17.2% | 18 |
| 2017 | 63 | 10 | 15.9% | 13 |
| 2016 | 56 | 16 | 28.6% | 8 |
| 2015 | 57 | 7 | 12.3% | 19 |
| 2014 | 54 | 14 | 25.9% | 8 |
| 2013 | 52 | 9 | 17.3% | 11 |
| 2012 | 52 | 12 | 23.1% | 14 |
| 2011 | 57 | 15 | 26.3% | 10 |
| 2010 | 53 | 9 | 17.0% | 20 |
| 2009 | 60 | 12 | 20.0% | 14 |
| 2008 | 58 | 16 | 27.6% | 12 |
| 2007 | 59 | 16 | 27.1% | 12 |
| 2006 | 61 | 15 | 24.6% | 9 |
| 2005 | 56 | 11 | 19.6% | 7 |
| 2004 | 60 | 16 | 26.7% | 16 |
| 2003 | 57 | 18 | 31.6% | 5 |
| 2002 | 60 | 11 | 18.3% | 16 |
| 2001 | 60 | 11 | 18.3% | 10 |
| 2000 | 53 | 15 | 28.3% | 6 |
| 1999 | 60 | 13 | 21.7% | 9 |
| 1998 | 59 | 17 | 28.8% | 14 |
| 1997 | 45 | 13 | 28.9% | 8 |
| 1996 | 47 | 16 | 34.0% | 6 |
| 1995 | 55 | 16 | 29.1% | 13 |
| 1994 | 58 | 22 | 37.9% | 11 |
| 1993 | 46 | 15 | 32.6% | 6 |
| 1992 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 1 |
| 1991 | 16 | 7 | 43.8% | 4 |
| 1990 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1989 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 1988 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 8 |
| 1987 | 13 | 0 | 0.0% | 9 |
| 1986 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 2 |
| 1985 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 1984 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 |
| 1983 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 4 |
| 1982 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1981 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 7 |
| 1980 | 15 | 6 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1979 | 28 | 13 | 46.4% | 5 |
| 1978 | 17 | 3 | 17.7% | 10 |
| 1977 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1976 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1975 | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1974 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1973 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 4 |
| 1972 | 15 | 3 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 1971 | 17 | 5 | 29.4% | 5 |
| 1970 | 15 | 5 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1969 | 21 | 5 | 23.8% | 6 |
| 1968 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 5 |
| 1967 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 3 |
| 1966 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1965 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1964 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1963 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1962 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1961 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1960 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1959 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1958 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1957 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1956 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1955 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1954 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1953 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1952 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1951 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1950 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 1949 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1948 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1947 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1946 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1939 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1938 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1937 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1936 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 1935 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1934 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1933 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1932 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1931 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1930 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 3 |
| 1929 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1928 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1927 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 1926 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1925 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1924 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1923 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1922 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1921 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1920 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1915 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1914 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1913 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1912 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1911 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1910 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1909 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1908 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1907 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1906 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1905 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1904 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1903 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1902 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1901 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1899 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1898 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1896 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1895 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1894 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1893 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1892 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1891 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 687 matches (Jan 2015 – Nov 2026), Arsenal drew 132 where the draw model expected 150.8 from those particular fixtures — about 19 fewer, or 1.7 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 4 times running. A flat league average would have expected 167.6 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.