What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | 16 Dec 2023 → 14 Apr 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 15 | 03 Jan 2026 → 24 Apr 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 04 Oct 2016 → 21 Jan 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 03 Mar 2014 → 10 May 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 12 May 2024 → 29 Sep 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 18 Oct 2025 → 14 Dec 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 8 | 17 Sep 2023 → 12 Nov 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 05 Feb 2017 → 02 Apr 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 07 Dec 2014 → 01 Feb 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 23 Apr 2023 → 13 Aug 2023 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primeira Liga | 312 | 79 | 25.3% | 3 | 16 |
| Taça de Portugal | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 0 | 3 |
| Club Friendlies | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 | 1 |
| UEFA Europa League | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33 | 6 | 18.2% | 15 |
| 2025 | 37 | 13 | 35.1% | 8 |
| 2024 | 38 | 6 | 15.8% | 15 |
| 2023 | 38 | 10 | 26.3% | 8 |
| 2022 | 34 | 9 | 26.5% | 5 |
| 2021 | 17 | 6 | 35.3% | 4 |
| 2017 | 19 | 3 | 15.8% | 8 |
| 2016 | 39 | 12 | 30.8% | 9 |
| 2015 | 34 | 11 | 32.4% | 7 |
| 2014 | 30 | 7 | 23.3% | 10 |
| 2013 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 5 |
Over 289 matches (Jan 2015 – Nov 2026), Arouca drew 76 where the draw model expected 72.2 from those particular fixtures — about 4 more, or 0.5 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 72.8 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.