What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | 12 Sep 2014 → 03 Jan 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 9 | 14 May 2010 → 02 Oct 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 7 | 02 Aug 2013 → 20 Sep 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 7 | 01 Oct 2012 → 23 Nov 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 7 | 30 Apr 2011 → 29 Jul 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 6 | 06 Nov 2009 → 15 Jan 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 5 | 28 Apr 2015 → 22 May 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 4 | 20 Feb 2015 → 13 Mar 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 4 | 16 Jan 2015 → 06 Feb 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 4 | 15 Feb 2013 → 08 Mar 2013 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ligue 2 | 190 | 71 | 37.4% | 5 | 13 |
| Ligue 1 | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 6 | 8 |
| Coupe de France | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | 5 | 23.8% | 5 |
| 2014 | 39 | 13 | 33.3% | 14 |
| 2013 | 38 | 15 | 39.5% | 7 |
| 2012 | 40 | 20 | 50.0% | 7 |
| 2011 | 38 | 13 | 34.2% | 7 |
| 2010 | 39 | 11 | 28.2% | 9 |
| 2009 | 18 | 6 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2008 | 3 | 3 | 100.0% | 0 |
Over 236 matches (Jan 2008 – May 2015), AC Arles-Avignon drew 86 where the draw model expected 71.3 from those particular fixtures — about 15 more, or 2.1 standard errors, more of a gap than most, though roughly one subject in twenty looks like this by chance.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 5 times running. A flat league average would have expected 70.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.