What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 223 matches (Jul 2015 – May 2026), Arka Gdynia drew 61 where the draw model expected 60.0 from those particular fixtures — about 1 more, or 0.2 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 58.3 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | 04 Mar 2018 → 19 May 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 10 | 29 Sep 2025 → 06 Dec 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 10 | 07 Oct 2018 → 10 Dec 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 20 Nov 2016 → 28 Feb 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 8 | 18 Jul 2016 → 20 Aug 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 7 | 11 Jul 2020 → 02 Mar 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 6 | 22 Oct 2017 → 25 Nov 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 6 | 10 Mar 2017 → 17 Apr 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 5 | 09 Aug 2025 → 14 Sep 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 5 | 04 Mar 2020 → 10 Jun 2020 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ekstraklasa | 182 | 50 | 27.5% | 2 | 12 |
| Polish Cup | 97 | 24 | 24.7% | 1 | 7 |
| UEFA Europa League | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16 | 6 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 2025 | 20 | 4 | 20.0% | 10 |
| 2024 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2023 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 2022 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2021 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 2020 | 19 | 4 | 21.1% | 5 |
| 2019 | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 5 |
| 2018 | 42 | 10 | 23.8% | 15 |
| 2017 | 47 | 15 | 31.9% | 6 |
| 2016 | 25 | 5 | 20.0% | 8 |
| 2015 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2014 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 1 |
| 2013 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 2012 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 2011 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2010 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2009 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2008 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2007 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 2006 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2005 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2004 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2003 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2002 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1995 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1994 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1993 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1991 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1989 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1988 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1987 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1986 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1984 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1983 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1979 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 03 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Oct 17:00 |
Arka Gdynia
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.6% | ITL · Club Friendlies |
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.