What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 02 Jun 2016 → 28 Jul 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 13 | 19 Jun 2022 → 14 Aug 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 11 | 19 Sep 2016 → 20 Nov 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 9 | 09 Dec 2021 → 15 May 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 8 | 27 Oct 2018 → 02 Dec 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 7 | 08 Nov 2023 → 28 Feb 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 7 | 14 Mar 2023 → 07 May 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 7 | 18 Sep 2022 → 22 Oct 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 6 | 30 Jul 2023 → 03 Sep 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 6 | 14 May 2023 → 03 Jun 2023 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie A | 190 | 48 | 25.3% | 6 | 12 |
| Copa do Brasil | 58 | 21 | 36.2% | 0 | 7 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2025 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2024 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2023 | 46 | 10 | 21.7% | 7 |
| 2022 | 44 | 9 | 20.5% | 13 |
| 2021 | 42 | 17 | 40.5% | 5 |
| 2020 | 12 | 5 | 41.7% | 2 |
| 2019 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2018 | 40 | 11 | 27.5% | 8 |
| 2017 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2016 | 44 | 9 | 20.5% | 14 |
| 2015 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 2014 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 2013 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
Over 239 matches (Feb 2015 – Mar 2026), América Mineiro drew 66 where the draw model expected 67.5 from those particular fixtures — about 2 fewer, or 0.2 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 64.2 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.