What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 25 Oct 2024 → 21 Dec 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 7 | 26 Nov 2023 → 17 Jan 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 5 | 04 Jul 2026 → 27 Oct 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 5 | 12 May 2024 → 24 Aug 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 4 | 13 Aug 2023 → 02 Sep 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 3 | 28 Oct 2025 → 14 Jan 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 3 | 22 Feb 2025 → 09 Mar 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 3 | 19 Jan 2025 → 09 Feb 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 3 | 22 Sep 2024 → 04 Oct 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 3 | 23 Sep 2023 → 07 Oct 2023 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eredivisie | 68 | 23 | 33.8% | 0 | 8 |
| KNVB Cup | 33 | 3 | 9.1% | 1 | 3 |
| Club Friendlies | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 4 | 4 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 2025 | 19 | 7 | 36.8% | 3 |
| 2024 | 37 | 12 | 32.4% | 9 |
| 2023 | 19 | 4 | 21.1% | 5 |
| 2022 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2021 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2020 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 2019 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2018 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2017 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2016 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2015 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2014 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2013 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2012 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2011 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2010 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2009 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2008 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2007 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2006 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 108 matches (Sep 2006 – Oct 2026), Almere City drew 28 where the draw model expected 21.2 from those particular fixtures — about 7 more, or 1.7 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 22.2 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.