What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 | 21 Sep 2013 → 25 Jan 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 18 | 12 Mar 2013 → 14 Sep 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 10 | 13 Sep 2014 → 01 Nov 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 9 | 21 Apr 2014 → 06 Sep 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 06 Mar 2012 → 09 Apr 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 15 Nov 2014 → 26 Dec 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 7 | 02 Feb 2013 → 26 Feb 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 6 | 18 Aug 2012 → 08 Sep 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 6 | 07 Jan 2012 → 25 Feb 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 6 | 11 Oct 2011 → 12 Nov 2011 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National League | 184 | 37 | 20.1% | 1 | 21 |
| FA Cup | 19 | 7 | 36.8% | 1 | 2 |
| Club Friendlies | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2024 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2023 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 2018 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2016 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2015 | 20 | 7 | 35.0% | 5 |
| 2014 | 47 | 8 | 17.0% | 10 |
| 2013 | 51 | 5 | 9.8% | 18 |
| 2012 | 44 | 11 | 25.0% | 9 |
| 2011 | 27 | 6 | 22.2% | 6 |
| 2008 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1973 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1969 | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | 1 |
Over 205 matches (Nov 1969 – Jul 2026), Alfreton Town drew 44 where the draw model expected 50.7 from those particular fixtures — about 7 fewer, or 1.1 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 51.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.