What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 01 Apr 2017 → 17 Jun 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 11 | 25 Jun 2016 → 27 Aug 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 9 | 10 Sep 2016 → 12 Nov 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 9 | 11 May 2013 → 03 Aug 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 8 | 15 Jun 2025 → 11 Aug 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 19 Oct 2013 → 08 Mar 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 7 | 22 Oct 2014 → 07 Mar 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 7 | 23 Aug 2014 → 05 Oct 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 7 | 13 Jul 2014 → 16 Aug 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 27 Oct 2012 → 09 Mar 2013 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J1 League | 314 | 81 | 25.8% | 0 | 18 |
| Emperor's Cup | 44 | 16 | 36.4% | 1 | 3 |
| Club Friendlies | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2025 | 40 | 13 | 32.5% | 8 |
| 2024 | 40 | 13 | 32.5% | 6 |
| 2023 | 38 | 14 | 36.8% | 4 |
| 2022 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2021 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2019 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2018 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2017 | 36 | 9 | 25.0% | 11 |
| 2016 | 37 | 7 | 18.9% | 11 |
| 2015 | 36 | 10 | 27.8% | 6 |
| 2014 | 36 | 9 | 25.0% | 7 |
| 2013 | 36 | 6 | 16.7% | 9 |
| 2012 | 36 | 11 | 30.6% | 5 |
| 2011 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2010 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2009 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2008 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2007 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2006 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2005 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2003 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 234 matches (Mar 2015 – Aug 2026), Albirex Niigata drew 67 where the draw model expected 58.8 from those particular fixtures — about 8 more, or 1.2 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 57.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.