New York Red Bulls

A run of consecutive matches without a draw.

non-draws in a row

09 Aug 2015 → 29 Apr 2016

Was this a feat, or a coincidence? how this is worked out ›

Draws the model expected 6.3 across these 26 fixtures, one chance each

A flat league rate expected 6.3 the same question, asked without knowing the fixtures

Chance of no draw at all 1 in 1,450 for this run alone — and that overstates it

Runs this long, expected anywhere 125.07 across every run in the database

Each match gets its own draw chance from the five-feature logistic draw model, recalibrated by its isotonic map, and the run's own probability is those chances multiplied — the Poisson-binomial reading. A binomial at the run's average chance would have called it 1.02× more likely, which is the direction that error always goes. The last tile is the figure to quote: a run picked out because it is long is not a coincidence you get to be surprised by — why that is, and what the same question says about every other record here. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.

Matches in this run

Date	Home	Score	Away	R	Tournament
the draw before the run
05 Aug 2015	CF Montréal	1–1	New York Red Bulls	D	USA · MLS
☆ 09 Aug 2015 · USA · MLS New York Red Bulls 2–0 New York City ☆ 15 Aug 2015 · USA · MLS New York Red Bulls 3–0 Toronto FC ☆ 26 Aug 2015 · USA · MLS Chicago Fire 3–2 New York Red Bulls ☆ 30 Aug 2015 · USA · MLS New York Red Bulls 3–0 D.C. United ☆ 11 Sep 2015 · USA · MLS New York Red Bulls 3–2 Chicago Fire ☆ 16 Sep 2015 · USA · MLS New England Revolution 2–1 New York Red Bulls ☆ 20 Sep 2015 · USA · MLS Portland Timbers 0–2 New York Red Bulls ☆ 25 Sep 2015 · USA · MLS New York Red Bulls 2–5 Orlando City SC ☆ 03 Oct 2015 · USA · MLS New York Red Bulls 2–1 Columbus Crew ☆ 07 Oct 2015 · USA · MLS New York Red Bulls 2–1 CF Montréal ☆ 14 Oct 2015 · USA · MLS Toronto FC 2–1 New York Red Bulls ☆ 18 Oct 2015 · USA · MLS New York Red Bulls 4–1 Philadelphia Union ☆ 25 Oct 2015 · USA · MLS Chicago Fire 1–2 New York Red Bulls ☆ 01 Nov 2015 · USA · MLS D.C. United 0–1 New York Red Bulls ☆ 08 Nov 2015 · USA · MLS New York Red Bulls 1–0 D.C. United ☆ 22 Nov 2015 · USA · MLS Columbus Crew 2–0 New York Red Bulls ☆ 29 Nov 2015 · USA · MLS New York Red Bulls 1–0 Columbus Crew ☆ 06 Mar 2016 · USA · MLS New York Red Bulls 0–2 Toronto FC ☆ 12 Mar 2016 · USA · MLS CF Montréal 3–0 New York Red Bulls ☆ 19 Mar 2016 · USA · MLS New York Red Bulls 4–3 Houston Dynamo ☆ 01 Apr 2016 · USA · MLS New England Revolution 1–0 New York Red Bulls ☆ 09 Apr 2016 · USA · MLS New York Red Bulls 0–2 Sporting Kansas City ☆ 13 Apr 2016 · USA · MLS San Jose Earthquakes 2–0 New York Red Bulls ☆ 16 Apr 2016 · USA · MLS Colorado Rapids 2–1 New York Red Bulls ☆ 24 Apr 2016 · USA · MLS New York Red Bulls 3–2 Orlando City SC ☆ 29 Apr 2016 · USA · MLS New York Red Bulls 4–0 FC Dallas
☆ 09 Aug 2015	New York Red Bulls	2–0	New York City	H	USA · MLS
☆ 15 Aug 2015	New York Red Bulls	3–0	Toronto FC	H	USA · MLS
☆ 26 Aug 2015	Chicago Fire	3–2	New York Red Bulls	H	USA · MLS
☆ 30 Aug 2015	New York Red Bulls	3–0	D.C. United	H	USA · MLS
☆ 11 Sep 2015	New York Red Bulls	3–2	Chicago Fire	H	USA · MLS
☆ 16 Sep 2015	New England Revolution	2–1	New York Red Bulls	H	USA · MLS
☆ 20 Sep 2015	Portland Timbers	0–2	New York Red Bulls	A	USA · MLS
☆ 25 Sep 2015	New York Red Bulls	2–5	Orlando City SC	A	USA · MLS
☆ 03 Oct 2015	New York Red Bulls	2–1	Columbus Crew	H	USA · MLS
☆ 07 Oct 2015	New York Red Bulls	2–1	CF Montréal	H	USA · MLS
☆ 14 Oct 2015	Toronto FC	2–1	New York Red Bulls	H	USA · MLS
☆ 18 Oct 2015	New York Red Bulls	4–1	Philadelphia Union	H	USA · MLS
☆ 25 Oct 2015	Chicago Fire	1–2	New York Red Bulls	A	USA · MLS
☆ 01 Nov 2015	D.C. United	0–1	New York Red Bulls	A	USA · MLS
☆ 08 Nov 2015	New York Red Bulls	1–0	D.C. United	H	USA · MLS
☆ 22 Nov 2015	Columbus Crew	2–0	New York Red Bulls	H	USA · MLS
☆ 29 Nov 2015	New York Red Bulls	1–0	Columbus Crew	H	USA · MLS
☆ 06 Mar 2016	New York Red Bulls	0–2	Toronto FC	A	USA · MLS
☆ 12 Mar 2016	CF Montréal	3–0	New York Red Bulls	H	USA · MLS
☆ 19 Mar 2016	New York Red Bulls	4–3	Houston Dynamo	H	USA · MLS
☆ 01 Apr 2016	New England Revolution	1–0	New York Red Bulls	H	USA · MLS
☆ 09 Apr 2016	New York Red Bulls	0–2	Sporting Kansas City	A	USA · MLS
☆ 13 Apr 2016	San Jose Earthquakes	2–0	New York Red Bulls	H	USA · MLS
☆ 16 Apr 2016	Colorado Rapids	2–1	New York Red Bulls	H	USA · MLS
☆ 24 Apr 2016	New York Red Bulls	3–2	Orlando City SC	H	USA · MLS
☆ 29 Apr 2016	New York Red Bulls	4–0	FC Dallas	H	USA · MLS
the draw that ended it
06 May 2016	Orlando City SC	1–1	New York Red Bulls	D	USA · MLS