Who is overdue a draw?

Ranks teams by a draw-likelihood score blending recent draw rate (p50 / p100), the current no-draw streak N, how stretched it is versus the team's own record (N / Max), and the resulting "draw debt" E = p_weighted × N. A team sitting at its record max is more overdue than one with plenty of headroom. The score is relative to the teams in view.

“Overdue” describes the run, not evidence that a draw is coming: over a million team-matches, neither N, E nor the score raises the next match's draw chance.

Candidates100

Top score 0.628 Union Clodiense

Global draws24.3%132,790 drawn

No-draw N 22 Raufoss IL

Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this

Draw predictor ranking 100 rows

E = draw debt (p_weighted × N) N = current no-draw streak Max = record no-draw streak Avg = typical long run (avg of top 10) p100 = draw rate, last 100 Draw% = all-time draw rate Score = draw likelihood (0–1), ranked vs all teams

#	Team	E	N	Max	Avg	p100	Draw%	Score▾
01	Hartlepool United	4.16	16	16	13.7	30%	26.1%	0.683
02	Raufoss IL	4.18	22	22	14.9	21%	19.9%	0.681
03	SCR Altach	4.23	14	19	12.3	33%	26.0%	0.650
04	Serbia	3.42	14	15	10.0	26%	25.4%	0.626
05	FC Juárez	3.28	14	14	10.1	23%	24.3%	0.626
06	Dumbarton	3.58	16	19	16.0	24%	20.4%	0.618
07	RB Leipzig	3.39	22	26	15.2	19%	21.6%	0.613
08	IK Start	3.23	16	17	14.5	23%	21.7%	0.612
09	Kelty Hearts	2.93	11	11	8.3	27%	25.1%	0.607
10	Croatia	3.04	13	15	9.2	23%	25.9%	0.593
11	Montrose	3.24	15	19	15.1	24%	22.2%	0.588
12	SK Rapid Wien	3.42	18	26	15.0	21%	20.6%	0.586
13	Altrincham	2.75	17	18	12.3	19%	24.6%	0.586
14	VPS Vaasa	2.76	12	13	10.1	21%	24.5%	0.582
15	Unión de Santa Fe	2.84	9	12	8.1	30%	34.4%	0.579
16	FCV Dender EH	2.82	10	12	7.0	27%	22.6%	0.574
17	Qingdao Hainiu	2.26	10	10	6.8	23%	22.4%	0.560
18	Jagiellonia Białystok	3.15	11	17	11.7	29%	27.1%	0.559
19	France	2.62	16	19	13.8	18%	20.6%	0.557
20	FSV 63 Luckenwalde	2.20	11	11	6.0	24%	24.1%	0.556
21	Vaduz	2.21	12	12	6.0	20%	22.7%	0.555
22	Ospitaletto	1.54	4	4	2.9	38%	38.5%	0.554
23	Albania	2.45	12	14	10.6	18%	21.0%	0.548
24	Orenburg	2.60	11	15	8.8	26%	24.4%	0.544
25	M'gladbach	2.86	13	18	14.2	22%	25.7%	0.542
26	Ipswich Town	3.25	14	24	15.7	24%	26.0%	0.542
27	Novara	3.47	8	16	10.9	43%	32.2%	0.538
28	FC Rostov	2.41	9	12	9.2	26%	27.2%	0.536
29	UD Almería	2.11	13	15	12.4	19%	26.8%	0.532
30	Rosenborg BK	3.05	14	20	16.7	23%	21.6%	0.531
31	Degerfors IF	2.70	13	21	10.5	20%	19.8%	0.527
32	RSV Eintracht 1949	1.50	6	6	4.0	25%	25.0%	0.518
33	Çorum	1.38	5	5	3.0	28%	27.6%	0.516
34	AS Cittadella	2.44	10	15	10.9	26%	30.1%	0.514
35	Polissya Zhytomyr	2.18	10	15	7.3	27%	21.8%	0.504
36	FK Bodø/Glimt	2.16	15	20	15.8	16%	20.4%	0.503
37	Vis Pesaro	2.59	7	14	8.2	35%	33.0%	0.503
38	US Lecce	2.22	11	17	11.4	23%	28.6%	0.502
39	Corinthians	2.05	9	13	9.3	22%	29.9%	0.502
40	Andorra	1.78	9	11	7.7	21%	22.8%	0.501
41	Argentina	2.41	17	33	14.7	17%	23.9%	0.500
42	Ilves Tampere	2.07	11	16	10.7	18%	21.4%	0.498
43	Olympique de Marseille	1.75	12	14	12.8	15%	25.6%	0.493
44	Al-Hilal	1.40	5	6	4.5	28%	25.7%	0.491
45	Van	1.80	10	13	9.5	18%	19.4%	0.490
46	Mito HollyHock	0.67	2	2	2.0	33%	33.3%	0.489
47	Columbus Crew	2.76	12	25	14.0	25%	26.4%	0.489
48	Venezia	1.94	8	11	9.3	27%	30.5%	0.480
49	Académico de Viseu	0.94	4	4	4.0	24%	23.5%	0.479
50	Al Kholood	0.62	2	2	2.0	31%	30.8%	0.479
51	Kudrivka	1.20	5	6	4.1	24%	23.9%	0.471
52	Scunthorpe United	2.46	11	19	14.8	24%	27.3%	0.463
53	Urawa Red Diamonds	1.89	8	12	9.3	26%	25.0%	0.462
54	Carpi	1.63	6	9	6.8	28%	29.3%	0.459
55	Neuchâtel Xamax	1.55	7	10	7.4	25%	21.2%	0.458
56	Turkey	1.75	9	13	10.1	23%	23.5%	0.458
57	IFK Mariehamn	1.89	8	12	9.6	22%	24.2%	0.456
58	Hamburger SV	2.66	10	20	14.4	27%	25.8%	0.455
59	Raków Częstochowa	2.16	9	17	10.9	24%	23.0%	0.450
60	United States	1.94	12	19	14.1	19%	20.3%	0.450
61	Córdoba CF	2.12	9	16	11.7	26%	27.8%	0.446
62	RAAL La Louvière	1.12	3	6	3.1	37%	36.7%	0.444
63	1. FC Magdeburg II	0.82	9	9	9.0	9%	9.1%	0.444
64	GKS Katowice	1.87	8	17	8.5	23%	21.4%	0.444
65	Eyüpspor	1.43	7	12	5.3	22%	23.5%	0.444
66	Annan Athletic	2.57	12	31	15.5	21%	23.1%	0.442
67	Porto	2.21	14	24	18.3	17%	17.7%	0.441
68	Minnesota United	2.16	7	13	9.8	30%	25.1%	0.439
69	Norwich City	1.96	11	20	13.3	19%	24.6%	0.438
70	FC København	1.87	11	20	12.7	19%	22.6%	0.438
71	KFUM Oslo	1.76	6	10	7.7	29%	25.9%	0.436
72	Clube do Remo	1.03	5	7	3.4	21%	21.1%	0.436
73	Norway	1.78	9	14	11.3	21%	22.3%	0.433
74	Al-Ahli	0.82	5	6	5.0	18%	16.4%	0.430
75	Universitatea Cluj	1.69	9	18	10.0	22%	25.2%	0.429
76	Vasco da Gama	1.89	8	17	9.8	26%	28.5%	0.427
77	Kashiwa Reysol	2.54	8	24	12.0	33%	25.7%	0.423
78	Drogheda United	2.32	7	17	10.8	34%	28.5%	0.423
79	Stade Lausanne Ouchy	1.24	7	12	4.7	16%	16.3%	0.422
80	Brøndby IF	2.13	8	15	12.1	27%	24.5%	0.420
81	Randers FC	2.02	8	16	11.2	26%	26.7%	0.419
82	VSG Altglienicke	1.28	5	10	5.3	25%	25.3%	0.419
83	Atalanta BC	2.00	9	16	13.4	25%	27.9%	0.417
84	Rodina Moscow	0.44	4	4	2.7	11%	11.1%	0.417
85	Sporting Charleroi	1.89	9	15	13.1	23%	24.7%	0.415
86	Instituto de Córdoba	1.42	6	12	6.8	22%	26.8%	0.414
87	KV Kortrijk	1.84	10	20	12.7	20%	21.8%	0.412
88	Kocaelispor	1.94	8	17	11.2	23%	24.8%	0.407
89	Neom SC	0.30	3	3	2.5	10%	10.0%	0.404
90	Yverdon-Sport	1.22	5	10	5.4	22%	18.4%	0.403
91	Djurgårdens IF	2.00	10	22	14.5	20%	22.7%	0.398
92	Orlando City SC	1.63	8	17	10.4	22%	26.3%	0.396
93	Almere City	1.10	4	9	4.4	27%	26.2%	0.396
94	FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc	1.15	5	14	4.9	24%	23.8%	0.396
95	SS Arezzo	1.58	8	23	9.4	21%	31.3%	0.396
96	Nagoya Grampus	1.55	8	14	10.9	19%	23.1%	0.395
97	Corvinul Hunedoara	0.81	3	7	2.8	28%	27.6%	0.395
98	Estudiantes de Río Cuarto	0.97	4	9	4.2	24%	24.3%	0.392
99	Club Brugge KV	1.82	14	29	20.2	15%	19.2%	0.388
100	Harrogate Town	1.47	8	14	11.1	20%	23.6%	0.387

Prediction detail Union Clodiense

ITA · Union Clodiense

0.628

draw-likelihood score · rank #10

draw debt E

3.32

14 since last draw

p100 · last 100 draw rate 24%

p50 · last 50 draw rate 24%

overall draw rate 24%

recent form · draws highlighted

D L L D L D W W L D W W W L W W W W W L W W W W

25 Apr 2025 Union Clodiense 1–0 Caldiero H ITA Serie C

18 Apr 2025 Calcio Padova 1–2 Union Clodiense A ITA Serie C

12 Apr 2025 Union Clodiense 3–1 Atalanta U23 H ITA Serie C

06 Apr 2025 LR Vicenza 1–2 Union Clodiense A ITA Serie C

29 Mar 2025 Union Clodiense 1–2 Novara H ITA Serie C

23 Mar 2025 Renate 1–2 Union Clodiense A ITA Serie C

16 Mar 2025 Union Clodiense 3–1 UC AlbinoLeffe H ITA Serie C

13 Mar 2025 FeralpiSalò 1–3 Union Clodiense A ITA Serie C

09 Mar 2025 Union Clodiense 2–1 Virtus Verona H ITA Serie C

28 Feb 2025 Alcione 0–2 Union Clodiense A ITA Serie C

23 Feb 2025 Union Clodiense 0–2 Pro Vercelli H ITA Serie C

15 Feb 2025 Pro Patria 1–3 Union Clodiense A ITA Serie C

08 Feb 2025 Union Clodiense 1–0 Giana Erminio H ITA Serie C

01 Feb 2025 Trento 0–5 Union Clodiense A ITA Serie C

25 Jan 2025 Union Clodiense 1–1 Arzignano Valchiampo D ITA Serie C

19 Jan 2025 Lumezzane 2–0 Union Clodiense A ITA Serie C

12 Jan 2025 Union Clodiense 1–0 Pergolettese H ITA Serie C

04 Jan 2025 US Triestina 0–3 Union Clodiense A ITA Serie C

21 Dec 2024 Union Clodiense 1–1 Calcio Lecco 1912 D ITA Serie C

18 Dec 2024 Union Clodiense 1–2 Calcio Padova H ITA Serie C

15 Dec 2024 Caldiero 2–2 Union Clodiense D ITA Serie C

11 Dec 2024 Atalanta U23 2–1 Union Clodiense A ITA Serie C

22 Nov 2024 Union Clodiense 1–2 LR Vicenza H ITA Serie C

17 Nov 2024 Novara 0–0 Union Clodiense D ITA Serie C

The draw predictor estimates which teams are statistically overdue a draw by blending each side's recent draw rate, its current no-draw streak and how stretched that streak is against the team's own record. The resulting draw-debt score (E = p_weighted × N) ranks candidates relative to the teams in view, so a side sitting at its record maximum reads as more overdue than one with room to spare. Use it to find draw-likely fixtures grounded in historical draw frequency.