Who is overdue a draw?

Ranks teams by a draw-likelihood score blending recent draw rate (p50 / p100), the current no-draw streak N, how stretched it is versus the team's own record (N / Max), and the resulting "draw debt" E = p_weighted × N. A team sitting at its record max is more overdue than one with plenty of headroom. The score is relative to the teams in view.

“Overdue” describes the run, not evidence that a draw is coming: over a million team-matches, neither N, E nor the score raises the next match's draw chance.

Candidates100

Top score 0.650 Castel di Sangro

Global draws24.3%132,783 drawn

No-draw N 22 Raufoss IL

Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this

Draw predictor ranking 100 rows

E = draw debt (p_weighted × N) N = current no-draw streak Max = record no-draw streak Avg = typical long run (avg of top 10) p100 = draw rate, last 100 Draw% = all-time draw rate Score = draw likelihood (0–1), ranked vs all teams

#	Team	E	N	Max	Avg	p100	Draw%	Score▾
01	Hartlepool United	4.16	16	16	13.7	30%	26.1%	0.683
02	Raufoss IL	4.18	22	22	14.9	21%	19.9%	0.681
03	SCR Altach	4.11	13	19	12.2	34%	26.1%	0.636
04	FC Juárez	3.28	14	14	10.1	23%	24.3%	0.626
05	Dumbarton	3.58	16	19	16.0	24%	20.4%	0.618
06	RB Leipzig	3.39	22	26	15.2	19%	21.6%	0.613
07	IK Start	3.23	16	17	14.5	23%	21.7%	0.612
08	Kelty Hearts	2.93	11	11	8.3	27%	25.1%	0.607
09	Serbia	3.17	13	15	9.9	26%	25.4%	0.601
10	Croatia	3.04	13	15	9.2	23%	25.9%	0.593
11	Montrose	3.24	15	19	15.1	24%	22.2%	0.588
12	SK Rapid Wien	3.42	18	26	15.0	21%	20.6%	0.586
13	Altrincham	2.75	17	18	12.3	19%	24.6%	0.586
14	VPS Vaasa	2.76	12	13	10.1	21%	24.5%	0.582
15	Unión de Santa Fe	2.84	9	12	8.1	30%	34.4%	0.579
16	FCV Dender EH	2.82	10	12	7.0	27%	22.6%	0.574
17	Qingdao Hainiu	2.26	10	10	6.8	23%	22.4%	0.560
18	Jagiellonia Białystok	3.15	11	17	11.7	29%	27.1%	0.559
19	France	2.62	16	19	13.8	18%	20.6%	0.557
20	FSV 63 Luckenwalde	2.20	11	11	6.0	24%	24.1%	0.556
21	Vaduz	2.21	12	12	6.0	20%	22.7%	0.555
22	Ospitaletto	1.54	4	4	2.9	38%	38.5%	0.554
23	Albania	2.45	12	14	10.6	18%	21.0%	0.548
24	Orenburg	2.60	11	15	8.8	26%	24.4%	0.544
25	M'gladbach	2.86	13	18	14.2	22%	25.7%	0.542
26	Ipswich Town	3.25	14	24	15.7	24%	26.0%	0.542
27	Novara	3.47	8	16	10.9	43%	32.2%	0.538
28	FC Rostov	2.41	9	12	9.2	26%	27.2%	0.536
29	UD Almería	2.11	13	15	12.4	19%	26.8%	0.532
30	Rosenborg BK	3.05	14	20	16.7	23%	21.6%	0.531
31	Degerfors IF	2.70	13	21	10.5	20%	19.8%	0.527
32	RSV Eintracht 1949	1.50	6	6	4.0	25%	25.0%	0.518
33	Çorum	1.38	5	5	3.0	28%	27.6%	0.516
34	AS Cittadella	2.44	10	15	10.9	26%	30.1%	0.514
35	Polissya Zhytomyr	2.18	10	15	7.3	27%	21.8%	0.504
36	Vis Pesaro	2.59	7	14	8.2	35%	33.0%	0.503
37	US Lecce	2.22	11	17	11.4	23%	28.6%	0.502
38	Corinthians	2.05	9	13	9.3	22%	29.9%	0.502
39	Andorra	1.78	9	11	7.7	21%	22.8%	0.501
40	Argentina	2.41	17	33	14.7	17%	23.9%	0.500
41	Ilves Tampere	2.07	11	16	10.7	18%	21.4%	0.498
42	Olympique de Marseille	1.75	12	14	12.8	15%	25.6%	0.493
43	Al-Hilal	1.40	5	6	4.5	28%	25.7%	0.491
44	Van	1.80	10	13	9.5	18%	19.4%	0.490
45	Mito HollyHock	0.67	2	2	2.0	33%	33.3%	0.489
46	Columbus Crew	2.76	12	25	14.0	25%	26.4%	0.489
47	Liechtenstein	1.90	17	24	11.4	12%	12.3%	0.485
48	Venezia	1.94	8	11	9.3	27%	30.5%	0.480
49	Académico de Viseu	0.94	4	4	4.0	24%	23.5%	0.479
50	Al Kholood	0.62	2	2	2.0	31%	30.8%	0.479
51	FK Bodø/Glimt	2.02	14	20	15.7	16%	20.4%	0.474
52	Kudrivka	1.20	5	6	4.1	24%	23.9%	0.471
53	Scunthorpe United	2.46	11	19	14.8	24%	27.3%	0.463
54	Urawa Red Diamonds	1.89	8	12	9.3	26%	25.0%	0.462
55	Carpi	1.63	6	9	6.8	28%	29.3%	0.459
56	Neuchâtel Xamax	1.55	7	10	7.4	25%	21.2%	0.458
57	Turkey	1.75	9	13	10.1	23%	23.5%	0.458
58	IFK Mariehamn	1.89	8	12	9.6	22%	24.2%	0.456
59	Hamburger SV	2.66	10	20	14.4	27%	25.8%	0.455
60	Raków Częstochowa	2.16	9	17	10.9	24%	23.0%	0.450
61	United States	1.94	12	19	14.1	19%	20.3%	0.450
62	Córdoba CF	2.12	9	16	11.7	26%	27.8%	0.446
63	RAAL La Louvière	1.12	3	6	3.1	37%	36.7%	0.444
64	1. FC Magdeburg II	0.82	9	9	9.0	9%	9.1%	0.444
65	GKS Katowice	1.87	8	17	8.5	23%	21.4%	0.444
66	Eyüpspor	1.43	7	12	5.3	22%	23.5%	0.444
67	Annan Athletic	2.57	12	31	15.5	21%	23.1%	0.442
68	Porto	2.21	14	24	18.3	17%	17.7%	0.441
69	Minnesota United	2.16	7	13	9.8	30%	25.1%	0.439
70	Norwich City	1.96	11	20	13.3	19%	24.6%	0.438
71	FC København	1.87	11	20	12.7	19%	22.6%	0.438
72	KFUM Oslo	1.76	6	10	7.7	29%	25.9%	0.436
73	Clube do Remo	1.03	5	7	3.4	21%	21.1%	0.436
74	Al-Ahli	0.82	5	6	5.0	18%	16.4%	0.430
75	Universitatea Cluj	1.69	9	18	10.0	22%	25.2%	0.429
76	Vasco da Gama	1.89	8	17	9.8	26%	28.5%	0.427
77	Kashiwa Reysol	2.54	8	24	12.0	33%	25.7%	0.423
78	Würzburger Kickers	1.69	7	14	8.4	23%	27.9%	0.423
79	Stade Lausanne Ouchy	1.24	7	12	4.7	16%	16.3%	0.422
80	Brøndby IF	2.13	8	15	12.1	27%	24.5%	0.420
81	Randers FC	2.02	8	16	11.2	26%	26.7%	0.419
82	VSG Altglienicke	1.28	5	10	5.3	25%	25.3%	0.419
83	Atalanta BC	2.00	9	16	13.4	25%	27.9%	0.417
84	Rodina Moscow	0.44	4	4	2.7	11%	11.1%	0.417
85	Sporting Charleroi	1.89	9	15	13.1	23%	24.7%	0.415
86	Instituto de Córdoba	1.42	6	12	6.8	22%	26.8%	0.414
87	KV Kortrijk	1.84	10	20	12.7	20%	21.8%	0.412
88	Kocaelispor	1.94	8	17	11.2	23%	24.8%	0.407
89	Neom SC	0.30	3	3	2.5	10%	10.0%	0.404
90	Yverdon-Sport	1.22	5	10	5.4	22%	18.4%	0.403
91	Djurgårdens IF	2.00	10	22	14.5	20%	22.7%	0.398
92	Orlando City SC	1.63	8	17	10.4	22%	26.3%	0.396
93	Almere City	1.10	4	9	4.4	27%	26.2%	0.396
94	Kosovo	1.37	6	13	6.9	22%	21.3%	0.396
95	FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc	1.15	5	14	4.9	24%	23.8%	0.396
96	SS Arezzo	1.58	8	23	9.4	21%	31.3%	0.396
97	Nagoya Grampus	1.55	8	14	10.9	19%	23.1%	0.395
98	Corvinul Hunedoara	0.81	3	7	2.8	28%	27.6%	0.395
99	Estudiantes de Río Cuarto	0.97	4	9	4.2	24%	24.3%	0.392
100	Norway	1.58	8	14	11.3	21%	22.3%	0.392

Prediction detail Castel di Sangro

ITA · Castel di Sangro

0.650

draw-likelihood score · rank #8

draw debt E

3.16

8 since last draw

p100 · last 100 draw rate 39%

p50 · last 50 draw rate 39%

overall draw rate 39%

recent form · draws highlighted

L L D D D D D L L W L L L D L D L W W L L L L L

14 Jun 1998 Treviso FBC 3–2 Castel di Sangro A ITA Serie B

07 Jun 1998 Castel di Sangro 0–2 Hellas Verona H ITA Serie B

31 May 1998 Genoa CFC 2–1 Castel di Sangro A ITA Serie B

24 May 1998 Castel di Sangro 0–1 Calcio Foggia H ITA Serie B

17 May 1998 Venezia 3–0 Castel di Sangro A ITA Serie B

10 May 1998 Castel di Sangro 2–1 Torino H ITA Serie B

03 May 1998 Delfino Pescara 1936 1–2 Castel di Sangro A ITA Serie B

26 Apr 1998 AC Reggiana 1919 1–0 Castel di Sangro A ITA Serie B

19 Apr 1998 Castel di Sangro 1–1 AC Perugia D ITA Serie B

11 Apr 1998 Reggina 1914 2–1 Castel di Sangro A ITA Serie B

05 Apr 1998 Castel di Sangro 1–1 AC Monza D ITA Serie B

22 Mar 1998 Castel di Sangro 0–4 Chievo Verona H ITA Serie B

15 Mar 1998 US Salernitana 1919 1–0 Castel di Sangro A ITA Serie B

08 Mar 1998 Castel di Sangro 0–2 Lucchese 1905 H ITA Serie B

01 Mar 1998 Ravenna 1–3 Castel di Sangro A ITA Serie B

22 Feb 1998 Fidelis Andria 1–0 Castel di Sangro A ITA Serie B

15 Feb 1998 Castel di Sangro 0–3 Cagliari Calcio H ITA Serie B

08 Feb 1998 Ancona Calcio 1–1 Castel di Sangro D ITA Serie B

01 Feb 1998 Castel di Sangro 1–1 Calcio Padova D ITA Serie B

25 Jan 1998 Castel di Sangro 0–0 Treviso FBC D ITA Serie B

18 Jan 1998 Hellas Verona 0–0 Castel di Sangro D ITA Serie B

11 Jan 1998 Castel di Sangro 3–3 Genoa CFC D ITA Serie B

04 Jan 1998 Calcio Foggia 2–0 Castel di Sangro A ITA Serie B

21 Dec 1997 Castel di Sangro 1–3 Venezia H ITA Serie B

The draw predictor estimates which teams are statistically overdue a draw by blending each side's recent draw rate, its current no-draw streak and how stretched that streak is against the team's own record. The resulting draw-debt score (E = p_weighted × N) ranks candidates relative to the teams in view, so a side sitting at its record maximum reads as more overdue than one with room to spare. Use it to find draw-likely fixtures grounded in historical draw frequency.