| Figure | Hertha BSC II | Erzgebirge Aue | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw | 0 | 6 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max Nthis team's longest run ever | 10 | 17 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run | 0.00 | 1.55 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches | 22.0% | 30.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches | 21.7% | 23.0% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn | 21.7% | 25.8% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw scorethe predictor ranking score | 0.065 | 0.330 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rankposition in that ranking | 1,864 | 373 | position in that ranking |
| Σ Nboth sides' runs added | 6 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added | 1.55 | both sides' draw debt added | |
| Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by | 0.395 | what the Cross predictor orders by | |
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.
This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chemnitzer | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 37 | 13 | +24 | 36 |
| 2 | Rot-Weiß Erfurt | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 47 | 22 | +25 | 34 |
| 3 | Hallescher FC | 16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 24 | 12 | +12 | 33 |
| 4 | Berliner FC Dynamo | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 25 | 13 | +12 | 32 |
| 5 | VSG Altglienicke | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 21 | +6 | 27 |
| 6 | Erzgebirge Aue | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 19 | +5 | 27 |
| 7 | Carl Zeiss Jena | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 13 | +10 | 26 |
| 8 | Greifswalder FC | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 29 | 23 | +6 | 25 |
| 9 | 1. FC Lokomotive Leipzig | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 30 | 28 | +2 | 22 |
| 10 | FSV Zwickau | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 22 |
| 11 | 1. FC Magdeburg II | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 20 |
| 12 | SV Babelsberg 03 | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 17 |
| 13 | BFC Preussen | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 14 |
| 14 | BSG Chemie Leipzig | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 13 |
| 15 | Hertha BSC II | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 26 | -15 | 11 |
| 16 | Tasmania Berlin | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 24 | 45 | -21 | 11 |
| 17 | FSV 63 Luckenwalde | 16 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 18 | 36 | -18 | 10 |
| 18 | RSV Eintracht 1949 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 15 | 35 | -20 | 9 |