| Figure | SC Fortuna Köln | Hansa Rostock | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw | 4 | 1 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max Nthis team's longest run ever | 16 | 20 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run | 1.22 | 0.26 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches | 34.0% | 30.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches | 28.0% | 23.0% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn | 28.0% | 26.2% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw scorethe predictor ranking score | 0.266 | 0.115 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rankposition in that ranking | 513 | 1,396 | position in that ranking |
| Σ Nboth sides' runs added | 5 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added | 1.47 | both sides' draw debt added | |
| Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by | 0.382 | what the Cross predictor orders by | |
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.
This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viktoria Köln | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 15 | +16 | 26 |
| 2 | MSV Duisburg | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 17 | +14 | 26 |
| 3 | Rot-Weiss Essen | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 13 | +7 | 24 |
| 4 | 1. FC Saarbrücken | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 28 | 21 | +7 | 20 |
| 5 | SV Wehen Wiesbaden | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 17 | +6 | 18 |
| 6 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 18 |
| 7 | Alemannia Aachen | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 17 |
| 8 | Waldhof Mannheim | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 19 | +2 | 16 |
| 9 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 20 | +1 | 16 |
| 10 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 16 |
| 11 | Hansa Rostock | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 16 |
| 12 | SV Meppen | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 15 |
| 13 | VfB Stuttgart II | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 23 | -2 | 15 |
| 14 | Preußen Münster | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 15 |
| 15 | Würzburger Kickers | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 14 |
| 16 | Jahn Regensburg | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 21 | +1 | 13 |
| 17 | SC Verl | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 12 |
| 18 | SG Sonnenhof Großaspach | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 12 |
| 19 | SC Fortuna Köln | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 11 |
| 20 | TSV Havelse | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 11 |