1. FC Saarbrücken vs Eintracht Braunschweig

Match ☆ 31 Jul 2010

GER · 3. Liga · 2010

GER 1. FC Saarbrücken

Current form · last 20

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Latest results · oldest first

Current league place

#15 / 18 · GER · 2. Bundesliga · 2026/27

As of this morning · domestic league only

View head-to-head record →

The models what they said before kick-off

Draw predictor · this site's own figures

Figure	1. FC Saarbrücken	Eintracht Braunschweig	What it means
N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw	1	1	matches in a row without a draw
Max Nthis team's longest run ever	14	12	this team's longest run ever
E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run	0.18	0.27	expected draws over the current run
p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches	16.0%	28.0%	draw rate over its last 50 matches
p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches	19.0%	27.0%	draw rate over its last 100 matches
Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn	23.0%	24.1%	share of every match drawn
Σ Nboth sides' runs added	2		both sides' runs added
Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added	0.45		both sides' draw debt added

These are the figures that held before kick-off: each side's record over every match it had played before 31 Jul 2010, computed exactly as the predictor computes today's. Draw score and rank are left out: both place a team against the whole field, and the field can only be scored as it stands now.

Team strength · Elo

1. FC Saarbrücken 1,460 after: 1,443

Eintracht Braunschweig 1,536 after: 1,553

Rating gap -11 home advantage included

Draws at this gap 27.4% 0–24 · 67,495 matches

Goals model · Dixon-Coles

Expected goals 1.16 – 1.25 home – away

Home win 33.3%

Draw 28.9% every level score added up

Away win 37.8%

Both together · the blend

Blended draw chance 28.5% 75% goals model · 25% Elo gap

Goals model said 28.9% form only

This Elo gap said 27.4% strength only

The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.

The regression · the logistic model

Logistic draw chance 30.7% five signals, then recalibrated

95% band 30.5% – 30.7% how unsure the fit is, not the match

The blend says 28.5% the older published reading

A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. Unlike the two readings above it, this one is not leak-free: the model was fitted on all of history, this match included, so for a played match it is a description rather than a prediction.

Both figures are what the models knew before this match — neither ever reads the result it is describing, so they can be compared with what actually happened. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.

League table · 3. Liga · 20102011 Final standings

This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Eintracht Braunschweig Champion	38	26	7	5	81	22	+59	85
2	Hansa Rostock	38	24	6	8	70	36	+34	78
3	Dynamo Dresden	38	19	8	11	55	37	+18	65
4	SV Wehen Wiesbaden	38	18	10	10	55	39	+16	64
5	Rot-Weiß Erfurt	38	18	7	13	63	45	+18	61
6	1. FC Saarbrücken	38	17	8	13	61	51	+10	59
7	Kickers Offenbach	38	16	9	13	52	45	+7	57
8	Jahn Regensburg	38	13	13	12	35	41	-6	52
9	1. FC Heidenheim	38	14	9	15	59	58	+1	51
10	VfB Stuttgart II	38	12	15	11	48	48	0	51
11	TuS Koblenz	38	13	10	15	38	46	-8	49
12	SV Sandhausen	38	11	13	14	43	46	-3	46
13	SV Babelsberg 03	38	12	10	16	39	47	-8	46
14	SpVgg Unterhaching	38	11	12	15	39	54	-15	45
15	Carl Zeiss Jena	38	11	11	16	43	62	-19	44
16	Rot Weiss Ahlen	38	11	9	18	45	69	-24	42
17	VfR Aalen	38	9	14	15	40	52	-12	41
18	Wacker Burghausen	38	9	10	19	46	66	-20	37
19	Werder Bremen II	38	8	12	18	33	56	-23	36
20	FC Bayern München II	38	7	9	22	29	54	-25	30

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