| Figure | Northampton Town | Exeter City | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw | 2 | 4 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max Nthis team's longest run ever | 22 | 18 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run | 0.49 | 1.18 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches | 24.0% | 32.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches | 25.0% | 28.0% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn | 26.0% | 26.9% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw scorethe predictor ranking score | 0.150 | 0.250 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rankposition in that ranking | 1,083 | 562 | position in that ranking |
| Σ Nboth sides' runs added | 6 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added | 1.68 | both sides' draw debt added | |
| Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by | 0.401 | what the Cross predictor orders by | |
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.
This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 15 | +10 | 31 |
| 2 | Barnet | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 28 | 18 | +10 | 26 |
| 3 | Walsall | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 21 | 12 | +9 | 22 |
| 4 | Crewe Alexandra | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 22 |
| 5 | Cheltenham Town | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 25 | -2 | 21 |
| 6 | Grimsby Town | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 20 |
| 7 | York City | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 21 | +3 | 20 |
| 8 | Gillingham | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 19 | +1 | 20 |
| 9 | Accrington Stanley | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 23 | 17 | +6 | 19 |
| 10 | Chesterfield | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 21 | +3 | 19 |
| 11 | Tranmere Rovers | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 19 |
| 12 | Exeter City | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 19 |
| 13 | Swindon Town | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 19 |
| 14 | Newport County | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 18 |
| 15 | Shrewsbury Town | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 18 |
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 17 |
| 17 | Bristol Rovers | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 16 |
| 18 | Oldham Athletic | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 15 |
| 19 | Port Vale | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 15 |
| 20 | Rochdale | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 15 |
| 21 | Northampton Town | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 14 |
| 22 | Rotherham United | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 12 |
| 23 | Colchester United | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 12 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 9 |