| Figure | Botafogo (RJ) | Atlético Mineiro | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw | 3 | 5 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max Nthis team's longest run ever | 20 | 14 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run | 0.90 | 1.36 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches | 30.0% | 26.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches | 30.0% | 28.0% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn | 25.6% | 26.5% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw scorethe predictor ranking score | 0.205 | 0.309 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rankposition in that ranking | 752 | 409 | position in that ranking |
| Σ Nboth sides' runs added | 8 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added | 2.26 | both sides' draw debt added | |
| Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by | 0.514 | what the Cross predictor orders by | |
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.
This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo (RJ) | 33 | 22 | 7 | 4 | 68 | 28 | +40 | 73 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 33 | 20 | 10 | 3 | 56 | 22 | +34 | 70 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 33 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 52 | 46 | +6 | 57 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 33 | 15 | 9 | 9 | 52 | 42 | +10 | 54 |
| 5 | Athletico Paranaense | 33 | 15 | 9 | 9 | 50 | 40 | +10 | 54 |
| 6 | EC Bahia | 33 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 48 | 42 | +6 | 53 |
| 7 | Atlético Mineiro | 33 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 44 | 39 | +5 | 50 |
| 8 | Red Bull Bragantino | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 44 | 39 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 | Santos | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 50 | 49 | +1 | 47 |
| 10 | São Paulo | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 43 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 40 | 50 | -10 | 42 |
| 12 | Botafogo (RJ) | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 45 | 53 | -8 | 39 |
| 13 | Vasco da Gama | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 38 |
| 14 | EC Vitória | 33 | 10 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 38 |
| 15 | Grêmio | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 37 | 44 | -7 | 37 |
| 16 | Mirassol | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 37 | 47 | -10 | 37 |
| 17 | Corinthians | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 36 |
| 18 | Internacional | 33 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 35 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 33 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 36 | 51 | -15 | 29 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 32 | 4 | 9 | 19 | 32 | 66 | -34 | 21 |