| Figure | FC St. Pauli | 1. FC Heidenheim | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw | 1 | 1 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max Nthis team's longest run ever | 17 | 16 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run | 0.32 | 0.20 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches | 34.0% | 24.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches | 30.0% | 18.0% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn | 27.4% | 25.3% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw scorethe predictor ranking score | 0.134 | 0.105 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rankposition in that ranking | 1,229 | 1,500 | position in that ranking |
| Σ Nboth sides' runs added | 2 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added | 0.52 | both sides' draw debt added | |
| Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by | 0.239 | what the Cross predictor orders by | |
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.
This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 8 | +15 | 28 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 13 | +11 | 21 |
| 3 | VfL Wolfsburg | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 25 | 14 | +11 | 19 |
| 4 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 18 |
| 5 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 13 | +8 | 17 |
| 6 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | Arminia Bielefeld | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 14 |
| 8 | FC St. Pauli | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | Greuther Fürth | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | VfL Osnabrück | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 11 |
| 11 | VfL Bochum | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 11 |
| 12 | Hannover 96 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 11 |
| 13 | Karlsruher SC | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 11 |
| 14 | Energie Cottbus | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 10 |
| 15 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 10 |
| 16 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 9 |
| 17 | Holstein Kiel | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 8 |
| 18 | Dynamo Dresden | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 8 |