| Figure | Shakhtar Donetsk | Obolon Kyiv | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw | 0 | 0 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max Nthis team's longest run ever | 26 | 6 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run | 0.00 | 0.00 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches | 16.0% | 36.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches | 25.0% | 34.0% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn | 18.9% | 28.4% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw scorethe predictor ranking score | 0.062 | 0.098 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rankposition in that ranking | 1,888 | 1,542 | position in that ranking |
| Σ Nboth sides' runs added | 0 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added | 0.00 | both sides' draw debt added | |
| Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by | 0.160 | what the Cross predictor orders by | |
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.
This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 5 | +17 | 29 |
| 2 | Polissya Zhytomyr | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 8 | +17 | 28 |
| 3 | Kharkiv | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 9 | +13 | 24 |
| 4 | Dynamo Kyiv | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 23 |
| 5 | Karpaty Lviv | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 9 | +15 | 22 |
| 6 | LNZ Cherkasy | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 18 |
| 7 | FC Zorya Luhansk | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 18 |
| 8 | Bukovyna Chernivtsi | 13 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 | Kolos Kovalivka | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Obolon Kyiv | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 11 |
| 11 | FC Epitsentr Dunaivtsi | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Chornomorets Odesa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 9 |
| 13 | Livyi Bereh Kyiv | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 9 |
| 14 | NK Veres Rivne | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 9 |
| 15 | Kudrivka | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 29 | -17 | 8 |
| 16 | Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 7 |