| Figure | Chornomorets Odesa | Shakhtar Donetsk | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw | 1 | 3 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max Nthis team's longest run ever | 22 | 26 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run | 0.17 | 0.60 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches | 18.0% | 14.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches | 17.0% | 24.0% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn | 22.5% | 18.8% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw scorethe predictor ranking score | 0.092 | 0.150 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rankposition in that ranking | 1,600 | 1,074 | position in that ranking |
| Σ Nboth sides' runs added | 4 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added | 0.77 | both sides' draw debt added | |
| Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by | 0.242 | what the Cross predictor orders by | |
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.
This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 5 | +17 | 28 |
| 2 | Polissya Zhytomyr | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 8 | +15 | 25 |
| 3 | Kharkiv | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 7 | +14 | 24 |
| 4 | Dynamo Kyiv | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 22 |
| 5 | Karpaty Lviv | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 8 | +14 | 19 |
| 6 | FC Zorya Luhansk | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 18 |
| 7 | LNZ Cherkasy | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 15 |
| 8 | Bukovyna Chernivtsi | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 12 |
| 9 | Kolos Kovalivka | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Obolon Kyiv | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 10 |
| 11 | Chornomorets Odesa | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 9 |
| 12 | FC Epitsentr Dunaivtsi | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 9 |
| 13 | NK Veres Rivne | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 9 |
| 14 | Livyi Bereh Kyiv | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 6 |
| 16 | Kudrivka | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 29 | -18 | 5 |