| Figure | Kolos Kovalivka | Chornomorets Odesa | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw | 7 | 1 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max Nthis team's longest run ever | 28 | 22 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run | 2.37 | 0.17 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches | 32.0% | 18.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches | 35.0% | 17.0% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn | 28.1% | 22.5% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw scorethe predictor ranking score | 0.418 | 0.092 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rankposition in that ranking | 203 | 1,598 | position in that ranking |
| Σ Nboth sides' runs added | 8 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added | 2.54 | both sides' draw debt added | |
| Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by | 0.510 | what the Cross predictor orders by | |
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.
This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 5 | +17 | 28 |
| 2 | Polissya Zhytomyr | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 8 | +15 | 25 |
| 3 | Kharkiv | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 7 | +14 | 24 |
| 4 | Dynamo Kyiv | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 19 |
| 5 | Karpaty Lviv | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 16 |
| 6 | LNZ Cherkasy | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 15 |
| 7 | FC Zorya Luhansk | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 15 |
| 8 | Bukovyna Chernivtsi | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 12 |
| 9 | Kolos Kovalivka | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Obolon Kyiv | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 10 |
| 11 | FC Epitsentr Dunaivtsi | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 9 |
| 12 | Chornomorets Odesa | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 9 |
| 13 | NK Veres Rivne | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 9 |
| 14 | Livyi Bereh Kyiv | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | Kudrivka | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 5 |