Match 09 Sep 2026 · 19:00 UTC
ITL · UEFA Champions League · 2026 League phase
View head-to-head record →
The models what they said before kick-off
Draw predictor · this site's own figures
Figure Liverpool Atlético Madrid What it means
N — no-draw run 2 5 matches in a row without a draw
Max N 26 28 this team's longest run ever
E — draw debt 0.41 0.79 expected draws over the current run
p50 — last 50 24.0% 14.0% draw rate over its last 50 matches
p100 — last 100 18.0% 17.0% draw rate over its last 100 matches
Draw % — all time 23.2% 23.1% share of every match drawn
Draw score 0.124 0.192 the predictor ranking score
Rank 1,276 734 position in that ranking

These are each team's figures as they stand today — this match has no stored Cross row, so they are not the numbers that held when it was played.

Team strength · Elo
Liverpool 2,082 after: 2,090
Atlético Madrid 2,029 after: 2,021
Rating gap +118 home advantage included
Draws at this gap 24.5% 100–149 · 86,824 matches
Goals model · Dixon-Coles
Expected goals 1.90 – 1.40 home – away
Home win 48.7%
Draw 23.3% every level score added up
Away win 28.0%
Both together · the blend
Blended draw chance 23.5% 80% goals model · 20% Elo gap
Goals model said 23.3% form only
This Elo gap said 24.5% strength only

The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.

Both figures are what the models knew before this match — neither ever reads the result it is describing, so they can be compared with what actually happened. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.