Match 15 Sep 2026 · 19:00 UTC
ENG · League Cup · 2026
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The models what they said before kick-off
Draw predictor · this site's own figures
Figure Liverpool Tottenham Hotspur What it means
N — no-draw run 2 2 matches in a row without a draw
Max N 26 21 this team's longest run ever
E — draw debt 0.41 0.50 expected draws over the current run
p50 — last 50 24.0% 26.0% draw rate over its last 50 matches
p100 — last 100 18.0% 24.0% draw rate over its last 100 matches
Draw % — all time 23.2% 23.1% share of every match drawn
Draw score 0.124 0.141 the predictor ranking score
Rank 1,276 1,096 position in that ranking

These are each team's figures as they stand today — this match has no stored Cross row, so they are not the numbers that held when it was played.

Team strength · Elo
Liverpool 2,085 after: 2,093
Tottenham Hotspur 1,965 after: 1,957
Rating gap +185 home advantage included
Draws at this gap 23.2% 150–199 · 53,176 matches
Goals model · Dixon-Coles
Expected goals 1.82 – 1.24 home – away
Home win 50.5%
Draw 24.1% every level score added up
Away win 25.5%
Both together · the blend
Blended draw chance 23.9% 80% goals model · 20% Elo gap
Goals model said 24.1% form only
This Elo gap said 23.2% strength only

The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.

Both figures are what the models knew before this match — neither ever reads the result it is describing, so they can be compared with what actually happened. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.