FC St. Pauli vs Stuttgarter Kickers

Match ☆ 17 Jun 1999

GER · 2. Bundesliga · 1998

GER FC St. Pauli

Current form · last 20

L D L L L L L D D D L L D W D D W D D L

Latest results · oldest first

Current league place

Current league standing unavailable

As of this morning · domestic league only

HT 3–2

View head-to-head record →

The models what they said before kick-off

Draw predictor · this site's own figures

Figure	FC St. Pauli	Stuttgarter Kickers	What it means
N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw	0	2	matches in a row without a draw
Max Nthis team's longest run ever	10	12	this team's longest run ever
E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run	0.00	0.52	expected draws over the current run
p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches	34.0%	24.0%	draw rate over its last 50 matches
p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches	29.0%	27.0%	draw rate over its last 100 matches
Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn	31.4%	28.8%	share of every match drawn
Σ Nboth sides' runs added	2		both sides' runs added
Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added	0.52		both sides' draw debt added

These are the figures that held before kick-off: each side's record over every match it had played before 17 Jun 1999, computed exactly as the predictor computes today's. Draw score and rank are left out: both place a team against the whole field, and the field can only be scored as it stands now.

Team strength · Elo

FC St. Pauli 1,542 after: 1,555

Stuttgarter Kickers 1,480 after: 1,468

Rating gap +127 home advantage included

Draws at this gap 25.3% 100–149 · 87,145 matches

Goals model · Dixon-Coles

Expected goals 1.71 – 0.91 home – away

Home win 55.6%

Draw 25.1% every level score added up

Away win 19.4%

Both together · the blend

Blended draw chance 25.1% 70% goals model · 30% Elo gap

Goals model said 25.1% form only

This Elo gap said 25.3% strength only

The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.

The regression · the logistic model

Logistic draw chance 28.1% five signals, then recalibrated

95% band 28.1% – 28.1% how unsure the fit is, not the match

The blend says 25.1% the older published reading

A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. Unlike the two readings above it, this one is not leak-free: the model was fitted on all of history, this match included, so for a played match it is a description rather than a prediction.

Both figures are what the models knew before this match — neither ever reads the result it is describing, so they can be compared with what actually happened. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.

League table · 2. Bundesliga · 19981999 Final standings

This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Arminia Bielefeld Champion	34	20	7	7	62	32	+30	67
2	SpVgg Unterhaching	34	19	6	9	47	30	+17	63
3	SSV Ulm 1846	34	15	13	6	63	51	+12	58
4	Hannover 96	34	16	9	9	52	36	+16	57
5	Karlsruher SC	34	17	5	12	54	43	+11	56
6	Tennis Borussia Berlin	34	15	9	10	47	39	+8	54
7	Mainz 05	34	14	8	12	48	44	+4	50
8	Greuther Fürth	34	13	10	11	40	31	+9	49
9	FC St. Pauli	34	12	9	13	49	46	+3	45
10	1. FC Köln	34	12	9	13	46	53	-7	45
11	Energie Cottbus	34	10	11	13	48	42	+6	41
12	Rot-Weiß Oberhausen	34	9	14	11	40	47	-7	41
13	Stuttgarter Kickers	34	11	8	15	38	53	-15	41
14	SC Fortuna Köln	34	9	13	12	49	55	-6	40
15	FC Gütersloh	34	10	7	17	39	58	-19	37
16	KFC Uerdingen 05	34	7	10	17	34	57	-23	31
17	SG Wattenscheid 09	34	7	9	18	31	46	-15	30
18	Fortuna Düsseldorf	34	5	13	16	35	59	-24	28

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