Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart

Match ☆ 22 May 1999

GER · Bundesliga · 1998

GER Hamburger SV

Current form · last 20

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Latest results · oldest first

Current league place

#11 / 18 · GER · Bundesliga · 2026/27

As of this morning · domestic league only

HT 3–1

View head-to-head record →

The models what they said before kick-off

Draw predictor · this site's own figures

Figure	Hamburger SV	VfB Stuttgart	What it means
N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw	0	5	matches in a row without a draw
Max Nthis team's longest run ever	12	9	this team's longest run ever
E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run	0.00	1.48	expected draws over the current run
p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches	36.0%	32.0%	draw rate over its last 50 matches
p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches	34.0%	28.0%	draw rate over its last 100 matches
Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn	26.0%	28.8%	share of every match drawn
Σ Nboth sides' runs added	5		both sides' runs added
Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added	1.48		both sides' draw debt added

These are the figures that held before kick-off: each side's record over every match it had played before 22 May 1999, computed exactly as the predictor computes today's. Draw score and rank are left out: both place a team against the whole field, and the field can only be scored as it stands now.

Team strength · Elo

Hamburger SV 1,687 after: 1,697

VfB Stuttgart 1,643 after: 1,632

Rating gap +109 home advantage included

Draws at this gap 25.3% 100–149 · 87,157 matches

Goals model · Dixon-Coles

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.01 home – away

Home win 50.9%

Draw 26.0% every level score added up

Away win 23.1%

Both together · the blend

Blended draw chance 25.8% 75% goals model · 25% Elo gap

Goals model said 26.0% form only

This Elo gap said 25.3% strength only

The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.

The regression · the logistic model

Logistic draw chance 26.9% five signals, then recalibrated

95% band 26.9% – 27.5% how unsure the fit is, not the match

The blend says 25.8% the older published reading

A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. Unlike the two readings above it, this one is not leak-free: the model was fitted on all of history, this match included, so for a played match it is a description rather than a prediction.

Both figures are what the models knew before this match — neither ever reads the result it is describing, so they can be compared with what actually happened. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.

League table · Bundesliga · 19981999 Final standings

This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	FC Bayern München Champion	34	24	6	4	76	28	+48	78
2	Bayer Leverkusen	34	17	12	5	61	30	+31	63
3	Hertha BSC	34	18	8	8	59	32	+27	62
4	Borussia Dortmund	34	16	9	9	48	34	+14	57
5	1. FC Kaiserslautern	34	17	6	11	51	47	+4	57
6	VfL Wolfsburg	34	15	10	9	54	49	+5	55
7	Hamburger SV	34	13	11	10	47	46	+1	50
8	MSV Duisburg	34	13	10	11	48	45	+3	49
9	TSV 1860 München	34	11	8	15	49	56	-7	41
10	Schalke 04	34	10	11	13	41	54	-13	41
11	VfB Stuttgart	34	9	12	13	41	48	-7	39
12	SC Freiburg	34	10	9	15	36	44	-8	39
13	Werder Bremen	34	10	8	16	41	47	-6	38
14	Hansa Rostock	34	9	11	14	49	58	-9	38
15	Eintracht Frankfurt	34	9	10	15	44	54	-10	37
16	1. FC Nürnberg	34	7	16	11	40	50	-10	37
17	VfL Bochum	34	7	8	19	40	65	-25	29
18	M'gladbach	34	4	9	21	41	79	-38	21

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