Hamburger SV vs Borussia Dortmund

Match ☆ 10 Dec 1994

GER · Bundesliga · 1994

GER Hamburger SV

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The models what they said before kick-off

Draw predictor · this site's own figures

Figure	Hamburger SV	Borussia Dortmund	What it means
N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw	1	2	matches in a row without a draw
Max Nthis team's longest run ever	10	12	this team's longest run ever
E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run	0.21	0.42	expected draws over the current run
p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches	24.0%	22.0%	draw rate over its last 50 matches
p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches	19.0%	20.0%	draw rate over its last 100 matches
Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn	19.6%	19.1%	share of every match drawn
Σ Nboth sides' runs added	3		both sides' runs added
Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added	0.63		both sides' draw debt added

These are the figures that held before kick-off: each side's record over every match it had played before 10 Dec 1994, computed exactly as the predictor computes today's. Draw score and rank are left out: both place a team against the whole field, and the field can only be scored as it stands now.

Team strength · Elo

Hamburger SV 1,587 after: 1,573

Borussia Dortmund 1,737 after: 1,751

Rating gap -85 home advantage included

Draws at this gap 25.2% 75–99 · 64,966 matches

Goals model · Dixon-Coles

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.23 home – away

Home win 37.5%

Draw 28.1% every level score added up

Away win 34.4%

Both together · the blend

Blended draw chance 27.4% 75% goals model · 25% Elo gap

Goals model said 28.1% form only

This Elo gap said 25.2% strength only

The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.

The regression · the logistic model

Logistic draw chance 27.7% five signals, then recalibrated

95% band 27.6% – 28.1% how unsure the fit is, not the match

The blend says 27.4% the older published reading

A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. Unlike the two readings above it, this one is not leak-free: the model was fitted on all of history, this match included, so for a played match it is a description rather than a prediction.

Both figures are what the models knew before this match — neither ever reads the result it is describing, so they can be compared with what actually happened. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.

League table · Bundesliga · 19941995 Final standings

This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Borussia Dortmund Champion	34	20	9	5	67	33	+34	49
2	Werder Bremen	34	20	8	6	70	39	+31	48
3	SC Freiburg	34	20	6	8	66	44	+22	46
4	1. FC Kaiserslautern	34	17	12	5	58	41	+17	46
5	M'gladbach	34	17	9	8	66	41	+25	43
6	FC Bayern München	34	15	13	6	55	41	+14	43
7	Bayer Leverkusen	34	13	10	11	62	51	+11	36
8	Karlsruher SC	34	11	14	9	51	47	+4	36
9	Eintracht Frankfurt	34	12	9	13	41	49	-8	33
10	1. FC Köln	34	11	10	13	54	54	0	32
11	Schalke 04	34	10	11	13	48	54	-6	31
12	VfB Stuttgart	34	10	10	14	52	66	-14	30
13	Hamburger SV	34	10	9	15	43	50	-7	29
14	TSV 1860 München	34	8	11	15	41	57	-16	27
15	KFC Uerdingen 05	34	7	11	16	37	52	-15	25
16	VfL Bochum	34	9	4	21	43	67	-24	22
17	MSV Duisburg	34	6	8	20	31	64	-33	20
18	Dynamo Dresden	34	4	8	22	33	68	-35	16

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