VfB Leipzig vs FSV Zwickau

Match ☆ 04 May 1997

GER · 2. Bundesliga · 1996

GER VfB Leipzig

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Current league place

#10 / 18 · GER · Regionalliga Nordost · 2026/27

As of this morning · domestic league only

HT 1–0

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The models what they said before kick-off

Draw predictor · this site's own figures

Figure	VfB Leipzig	FSV Zwickau	What it means
N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw	1	1	matches in a row without a draw
Max Nthis team's longest run ever	17	16	this team's longest run ever
E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run	0.21	0.24	expected draws over the current run
p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches	20.0%	18.0%	draw rate over its last 50 matches
p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches	22.0%	28.0%	draw rate over its last 100 matches
Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn	24.8%	27.6%	share of every match drawn
Σ Nboth sides' runs added	2		both sides' runs added
Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added	0.45		both sides' draw debt added

These are the figures that held before kick-off: each side's record over every match it had played before 4 May 1997, computed exactly as the predictor computes today's. Draw score and rank are left out: both place a team against the whole field, and the field can only be scored as it stands now.

Team strength · Elo

VfB Leipzig 1,468 after: 1,480

FSV Zwickau 1,415 after: 1,402

Rating gap +118 home advantage included

Draws at this gap 25.3% 100–149 · 87,145 matches

Goals model · Dixon-Coles

Expected goals 1.71 – 0.83 home – away

Home win 57.6%

Draw 24.9% every level score added up

Away win 17.5%

Both together · the blend

Blended draw chance 25.0% 70% goals model · 30% Elo gap

Goals model said 24.9% form only

This Elo gap said 25.3% strength only

The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.

The regression · the logistic model

Logistic draw chance 28.1% five signals, then recalibrated

95% band 28.1% – 28.1% how unsure the fit is, not the match

The blend says 25.0% the older published reading

A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. Unlike the two readings above it, this one is not leak-free: the model was fitted on all of history, this match included, so for a played match it is a description rather than a prediction.

Both figures are what the models knew before this match — neither ever reads the result it is describing, so they can be compared with what actually happened. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.

League table · 2. Bundesliga · 19961997 Final standings

This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	1. FC Kaiserslautern Champion	34	19	11	4	74	28	+46	68
2	VfL Wolfsburg	34	14	16	4	52	29	+23	58
3	Hertha BSC	34	17	7	10	57	38	+19	58
4	Mainz 05	34	14	12	8	50	34	+16	54
5	Stuttgarter Kickers	34	14	11	9	38	27	+11	53
6	SpVgg Unterhaching	34	11	16	7	35	29	+6	49
7	Eintracht Frankfurt	34	13	9	12	43	46	-3	48
8	VfB Leipzig	34	12	10	12	53	54	-1	46
9	FC Gütersloh	34	12	9	13	43	51	-8	45
10	KFC Uerdingen 05	34	13	5	16	46	44	+2	44
11	SV Meppen	34	10	14	10	44	48	-4	44
12	SC Fortuna Köln	34	11	9	14	52	47	+5	42
13	Carl Zeiss Jena	34	9	15	10	44	49	-5	42
14	FSV Zwickau	34	12	6	16	34	48	-14	42
15	Waldhof Mannheim	34	10	10	14	45	56	-11	40
16	VfB Lübeck	34	8	12	14	32	53	-21	36
17	Rot-Weiss Essen	34	8	5	21	47	74	-27	29
18	VfB Oldenburg	34	6	9	19	33	67	-34	27

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