RC Strasbourg vs Olympique de Marseille

Match ☆ 17 Oct 1998

FRA · Ligue 1 · 1998

FRA RC Strasbourg

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As of this morning · domestic league only

HT 0–1

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The models what they said before kick-off

Draw predictor · this site's own figures

Figure	RC Strasbourg	Olympique de Marseille	What it means
N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw	3	3	matches in a row without a draw
Max Nthis team's longest run ever	19	9	this team's longest run ever
E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run	0.65	0.93	expected draws over the current run
p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches	26.0%	28.0%	draw rate over its last 50 matches
p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches	19.0%	33.0%	draw rate over its last 100 matches
Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn	26.5%	27.7%	share of every match drawn
Σ Nboth sides' runs added	6		both sides' runs added
Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added	1.58		both sides' draw debt added

These are the figures that held before kick-off: each side's record over every match it had played before 17 Oct 1998, computed exactly as the predictor computes today's. Draw score and rank are left out: both place a team against the whole field, and the field can only be scored as it stands now.

Team strength · Elo

RC Strasbourg 1,622 after: 1,609

Olympique de Marseille 1,742 after: 1,754

Rating gap -55 home advantage included

Draws at this gap 25.0% 50–74 · 79,338 matches

Goals model · Dixon-Coles

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.10 home – away

Home win 37.7%

Draw 29.6% every level score added up

Away win 32.6%

Both together · the blend

Blended draw chance 28.2% 70% goals model · 30% Elo gap

Goals model said 29.6% form only

This Elo gap said 25.0% strength only

The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.

The regression · the logistic model

Logistic draw chance 29.4% five signals, then recalibrated

95% band 29.4% – 29.8% how unsure the fit is, not the match

The blend says 28.2% the older published reading

A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. Unlike the two readings above it, this one is not leak-free: the model was fitted on all of history, this match included, so for a played match it is a description rather than a prediction.

Both figures are what the models knew before this match — neither ever reads the result it is describing, so they can be compared with what actually happened. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.

League table · Ligue 1 · 19981999 Final standings

This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Girondins de Bordeaux Champion	34	22	6	6	66	29	+37	72
2	Olympique de Marseille	34	21	8	5	56	28	+28	71
3	Olympique Lyonnais	34	18	9	7	51	31	+20	63
4	AS Monaco	34	18	8	8	52	32	+20	62
5	Stade Rennais	34	17	8	9	45	38	+7	59
6	RC Lens	34	14	7	13	46	43	+3	49
7	Nantes	34	12	12	10	40	34	+6	48
8	Montpellier HSC	34	11	10	13	53	50	+3	43
9	Paris Saint-Germain	34	10	9	15	34	35	-1	39
10	Metz	34	9	12	13	28	37	-9	39
11	AS Nancy-Lorraine	34	10	9	15	35	45	-10	39
12	RC Strasbourg	34	8	14	12	30	36	-6	38
13	SC Bastia	34	10	8	16	37	46	-9	38
14	AJ Auxerre	34	9	10	15	40	45	-5	37
15	Le Havre AC	34	8	11	15	23	38	-15	35
16	Lorient	34	8	11	15	33	49	-16	35
17	FC Sochaux-Montbéliard	34	6	15	13	30	54	-24	33
18	Toulouse	34	6	11	17	24	53	-29	29

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