Chemnitzer vs MSV Duisburg

Match ☆ 29 Nov 1995

GER · 2. Bundesliga · 1995

GER Chemnitzer

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The models what they said before kick-off

Draw predictor · this site's own figures

Figure	Chemnitzer	MSV Duisburg	What it means
N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw	2	0	matches in a row without a draw
Max Nthis team's longest run ever	10	11	this team's longest run ever
E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run	0.60	0.00	expected draws over the current run
p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches	32.0%	32.0%	draw rate over its last 50 matches
p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches	28.6%	27.6%	draw rate over its last 100 matches
Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn	28.6%	27.6%	share of every match drawn
Σ Nboth sides' runs added	2		both sides' runs added
Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added	0.60		both sides' draw debt added

These are the figures that held before kick-off: each side's record over every match it had played before 29 Nov 1995, computed exactly as the predictor computes today's. Draw score and rank are left out: both place a team against the whole field, and the field can only be scored as it stands now.

Team strength · Elo

Chemnitzer 1,527 after: 1,536

MSV Duisburg 1,563 after: 1,554

Rating gap +29 home advantage included

Draws at this gap 26.3% 25–49 · 73,141 matches

Goals model · Dixon-Coles

Expected goals 1.78 – 1.09 home – away

Home win 52.9%

Draw 24.5% every level score added up

Away win 22.7%

Both together · the blend

Blended draw chance 24.9% 75% goals model · 25% Elo gap

Goals model said 24.5% form only

This Elo gap said 26.3% strength only

The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.

The regression · the logistic model

Logistic draw chance 28.1% five signals, then recalibrated

95% band 28.1% – 28.1% how unsure the fit is, not the match

The blend says 24.9% the older published reading

A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. Unlike the two readings above it, this one is not leak-free: the model was fitted on all of history, this match included, so for a played match it is a description rather than a prediction.

Both figures are what the models knew before this match — neither ever reads the result it is describing, so they can be compared with what actually happened. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.

League table · 2. Bundesliga · 19951996 Final standings

This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	VfL Bochum Champion	34	21	6	7	68	30	+38	69
2	Arminia Bielefeld	34	16	9	9	55	45	+10	57
3	MSV Duisburg	34	15	11	8	55	37	+18	56
4	SpVgg Unterhaching	34	14	10	10	52	38	+14	52
5	FSV Zwickau	34	15	4	15	39	48	-9	49
6	Carl Zeiss Jena	34	13	9	12	49	54	-5	48
7	Waldhof Mannheim	34	13	7	14	49	47	+2	46
8	SC Fortuna Köln	34	12	10	12	37	37	0	46
9	Hertha BSC	34	11	12	11	37	35	+2	45
10	VfB Leipzig	34	13	6	15	35	49	-14	45
11	SV Meppen	34	10	14	10	45	43	+2	44
12	Mainz 05	34	12	8	14	37	41	-4	44
13	VfL Wolfsburg	34	10	14	10	41	46	-5	44
14	VfB Lübeck	34	13	5	16	40	45	-5	44
15	Chemnitzer	34	11	9	14	43	51	-8	42
16	1. FC Nürnberg	34	9	12	13	33	40	-7	39
17	Hannover 96	34	10	7	17	38	48	-10	37
18	SG Wattenscheid 09	34	8	7	19	38	57	-19	31

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