1. FC Köln vs Borussia Dortmund

Match ☆ 13 Dec 1997

GER · Bundesliga · 1997

GER 1. FC Köln

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Current league place

#2 / 18 · GER · Bundesliga · 2026/27

As of this morning · domestic league only

HT 2–1

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The models what they said before kick-off

Draw predictor · this site's own figures

Figure	1. FC Köln	Borussia Dortmund	What it means
N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw	0	6	matches in a row without a draw
Max Nthis team's longest run ever	14	15	this team's longest run ever
E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run	0.00	1.26	expected draws over the current run
p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches	14.0%	18.0%	draw rate over its last 50 matches
p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches	25.0%	23.0%	draw rate over its last 100 matches
Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn	20.7%	21.9%	share of every match drawn
Σ Nboth sides' runs added	6		both sides' runs added
Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added	1.26		both sides' draw debt added

These are the figures that held before kick-off: each side's record over every match it had played before 13 Dec 1997, computed exactly as the predictor computes today's. Draw score and rank are left out: both place a team against the whole field, and the field can only be scored as it stands now.

Team strength · Elo

1. FC Köln 1,574 after: 1,596

Borussia Dortmund 1,808 after: 1,786

Rating gap -169 home advantage included

Draws at this gap 23.7% 150–199 · 53,412 matches

Goals model · Dixon-Coles

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.82 home – away

Home win 30.6%

Draw 23.7% every level score added up

Away win 45.7%

Both together · the blend

Blended draw chance 23.7% 75% goals model · 25% Elo gap

Goals model said 23.7% form only

This Elo gap said 23.7% strength only

The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.

The regression · the logistic model

Logistic draw chance 22.9% five signals, then recalibrated

95% band 22.9% – 23.0% how unsure the fit is, not the match

The blend says 23.7% the older published reading

A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. Unlike the two readings above it, this one is not leak-free: the model was fitted on all of history, this match included, so for a played match it is a description rather than a prediction.

Both figures are what the models knew before this match — neither ever reads the result it is describing, so they can be compared with what actually happened. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.

League table · Bundesliga · 19971998 Final standings

This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	1. FC Kaiserslautern Champion	34	19	11	4	63	39	+24	68
2	FC Bayern München	34	19	9	6	69	37	+32	66
3	Bayer Leverkusen	34	14	13	7	66	39	+27	55
4	VfB Stuttgart	34	14	10	10	55	49	+6	52
5	Schalke 04	34	13	13	8	38	32	+6	52
6	Hansa Rostock	34	14	9	11	54	46	+8	51
7	Werder Bremen	34	14	8	12	43	47	-4	50
8	MSV Duisburg	34	11	11	12	43	44	-1	44
9	Hamburger SV	34	11	11	12	38	46	-8	44
10	Borussia Dortmund	34	11	10	13	57	55	+2	43
11	Hertha BSC	34	12	7	15	41	53	-12	43
12	VfL Bochum	34	11	8	15	41	49	-8	41
13	TSV 1860 München	34	11	8	15	43	54	-11	41
14	VfL Wolfsburg	34	11	6	17	38	54	-16	39
15	M'gladbach	34	9	11	14	54	59	-5	38
16	Karlsruher SC	34	9	11	14	48	60	-12	38
17	1. FC Köln	34	10	6	18	49	64	-15	36
18	Arminia Bielefeld	34	8	8	18	43	56	-13	32

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