What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 28 Nov 2023 → 09 Dec 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 10 | 17 Jul 2007 → 21 Nov 2007 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 10 | 10 Apr 2000 → 28 Jun 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 9 | 20 Mar 2023 → 20 Nov 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 8 | 12 May 2004 → 06 Jun 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 27 Jun 1992 → 26 Sep 1992 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 6 | 30 Jul 2011 → 05 Sep 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 5 | 06 Jul 2002 → 14 Jul 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 5 | 16 Aug 1995 → 26 Aug 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 5 | 10 Sep 1991 → 20 Sep 1991 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Pacific Games | 53 | 7 | 13.2% | 6 | 6 |
| Oceania Nations Cup | 40 | 1 | 2.5% | 4 | 5 |
| Friendly | 37 | 7 | 18.9% | 1 | 2 |
| Melanesia Cup | 27 | 4 | 14.8% | 4 | 4 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 17 | 2 | 11.8% | 3 | 4 |
| South Pacific Mini Games | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 3 | 3 |
| Pacific Games | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 2 | 5 |
| MSG Prime Minister's Cup | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 0 | 3 |
| Pacific Mini Games | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 | 2 |
| FIFA Series | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 2025 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2024 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 10 |
| 2023 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 9 |
| 2022 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2019 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 2018 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2017 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 2016 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2015 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2012 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2011 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 6 |
| 2008 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 2007 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2004 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 8 |
| 2003 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2002 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 2001 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2000 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 1998 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1996 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1995 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1994 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1993 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1992 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 1991 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1990 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1989 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1988 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1987 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1983 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1981 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 3 |
| 1980 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1979 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1978 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1975 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1973 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1971 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1969 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1966 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1963 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1957 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1953 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1951 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 223 matches (Oct 1951 – Oct 2026), Vanuatu drew 29 where the draw model expected 34.2 from those particular fixtures — about 5 fewer, or 1.0 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 35.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. 8 of the matches carry no model probability and are left out. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.