What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 | 08 Oct 2020 → 16 Nov 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 20 | 31 Mar 2015 → 15 Nov 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 13 | 11 Jul 1999 → 08 Oct 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 27 Mar 2007 → 28 Oct 2007 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 21 Jan 2011 → 02 Sep 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 9 | 17 Oct 2000 → 25 Apr 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 8 | 01 Jun 2026 → 06 Oct 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 11 Oct 2011 → 03 Jun 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 06 Feb 2008 → 20 Aug 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 8 | 26 Jun 2001 → 22 Sep 2001 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 142 | 32 | 22.5% | 5 | 8 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 118 | 24 | 20.3% | 1 | 10 |
| AFC Asian Cup | 33 | 7 | 21.2% | 0 | 4 |
| AFC Asian Cup qualification | 31 | 5 | 16.1% | 3 | 4 |
| Asian Games | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 1 | 7 |
| CAFA Nations Cup | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 | 4 |
| FIFA World Cup | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| Merdeka Tournament | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| Nehru Cup | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| Al Ain International Cup | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 |
| FIFA Series | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 |
| Navruz Cup | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Millennium Cup | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| King's Cup | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 |
| Chinese FA Cup | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 8 |
| 2025 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 4 |
| 2024 | 16 | 5 | 31.3% | 3 |
| 2023 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2022 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 9 |
| 2021 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 9 |
| 2020 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2019 | 16 | 2 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 2018 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 3 |
| 2017 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2016 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 12 |
| 2015 | 13 | 1 | 7.7% | 8 |
| 2014 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 4 |
| 2013 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2012 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 5 |
| 2011 | 17 | 3 | 17.7% | 9 |
| 2010 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 2009 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 3 |
| 2008 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 8 |
| 2007 | 17 | 4 | 23.5% | 10 |
| 2006 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2005 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2004 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 6 |
| 2003 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 3 |
| 2002 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2001 | 22 | 3 | 13.6% | 8 |
| 2000 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 6 |
| 1999 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1998 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 3 |
| 1997 | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 5 |
| 1996 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 1995 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1994 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 7 |
| 1992 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 4 |
Over 130 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), Uzbekistan drew 23 where the draw model expected 29.6 from those particular fixtures — about 7 fewer, or 1.4 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 31.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.