What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 03 Sep 2015 → 09 Nov 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 9 | 25 Nov 1996 → 22 Jun 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 8 | 01 Aug 2008 → 18 Apr 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 6 | 18 Feb 2004 → 09 Jun 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 6 | 23 Apr 2001 → 07 May 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 5 | 25 Mar 2025 → 18 Nov 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 5 | 14 Mar 2024 → 06 Jun 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 4 | 27 May 2022 → 14 Jun 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 4 | 25 Dec 2018 → 17 Jan 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 4 | 18 Nov 2007 → 18 May 2008 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 53 | 7 | 13.2% | 0 | 6 |
| Friendly | 49 | 8 | 16.3% | 2 | 4 |
| AFC Asian Cup qualification | 26 | 4 | 15.4% | 5 | 5 |
| AFC Challenge Cup | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 3 | 3 |
| Asian Games | 11 | 5 | 45.5% | 1 | 3 |
| AFC Challenge Cup qualification | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 2 | 3 |
| AFC Asian Cup | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 | 3 |
| United Arab Emirates Friendship Tournament | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 0 | 2 |
| CAFA Nations Cup | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 | 2 |
| VFF Cup | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 2024 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 2023 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 2022 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2021 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2019 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 2018 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2017 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 2016 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2015 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 2014 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2013 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2012 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 3 |
| 2011 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2010 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2009 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 2008 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 3 |
| 2007 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 2005 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2004 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 6 |
| 2003 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 2001 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 2000 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1999 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1998 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 3 |
| 1997 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 1996 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1994 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 2 |
| 1993 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1992 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
Over 175 matches (Jun 1992 – Nov 2025), Turkmenistan drew 32 where the draw model expected 35.9 from those particular fixtures — about 4 fewer, or 0.7 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 37.7 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.