What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | 01 Jun 2012 → 16 Oct 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 9 | 30 Mar 1995 → 17 Nov 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 8 | 03 Sep 1998 → 04 Oct 1998 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 8 | 20 Aug 1983 → 15 Sep 1983 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 7 | 22 Jun 2024 → 21 Mar 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 6 | 30 Jun 2003 → 11 Jul 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 6 | 30 Nov 1993 → 16 Dec 1993 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 6 | 12 Jul 1992 → 09 Oct 1992 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 5 | 08 Jul 2019 → 18 Jul 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 5 | 22 Mar 2013 → 23 Jun 2013 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 67 | 12 | 17.9% | 2 | 5 |
| South Pacific Games | 58 | 5 | 8.6% | 2 | 8 |
| Oceania Nations Cup | 42 | 5 | 11.9% | 3 | 5 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 32 | 4 | 12.5% | 4 | 4 |
| Pacific Games | 15 | 2 | 13.3% | 3 | 5 |
| South Pacific Mini Games | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 5 | 5 |
| Coupe de l'Outre-Mer | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 | 4 |
| Oceania Nations Cup qualification | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 | 4 |
| Confederations Cup | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2025 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2024 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 2023 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 3 |
| 2022 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2019 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 2018 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2017 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2016 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 2013 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 2012 | 13 | 0 | 0.0% | 13 |
| 2011 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 3 |
| 2010 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 2008 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2007 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 2004 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2003 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 2002 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 2001 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2000 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1998 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 1997 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1996 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1995 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 9 |
| 1994 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1993 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1992 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 1991 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1987 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1985 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1983 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 8 |
| 1981 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 4 |
| 1980 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 1979 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1978 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1975 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1974 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1973 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1971 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1970 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1969 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1968 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1966 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1965 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1964 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1963 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1961 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1960 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1959 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1957 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1955 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1953 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1952 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
Over 246 matches (Sep 1952 – Oct 2026), Tahiti drew 31 where the draw model expected 36.8 from those particular fixtures — about 6 fewer, or 1.1 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 40.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.