What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 05 Jun 1972 → 12 Sep 1972 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 11 | 06 Jun 2019 → 19 Jan 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 11 | 22 Aug 2009 → 20 Feb 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 8 | 08 Apr 1993 → 07 May 1993 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 7 | 16 Nov 2024 → 06 Sep 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 7 | 10 Jun 1996 → 20 Sep 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 6 | 06 Jun 2008 → 04 Aug 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 6 | 15 Oct 2003 → 22 Nov 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 6 | 24 Sep 1999 → 29 Nov 1999 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 5 | 23 Dec 2015 → 13 Jan 2016 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 77 | 18 | 23.4% | 4 | 5 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 42 | 7 | 16.7% | 0 | 8 |
| SAFF Cup | 38 | 6 | 15.8% | 1 | 4 |
| AFC Asian Cup qualification | 35 | 3 | 8.6% | 5 | 6 |
| AFC Challenge Cup | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 3 | 3 |
| South Asian Games | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 2 | 3 |
| AFC Challenge Cup qualification | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 3 | 3 |
| Merdeka Tournament | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 | 5 |
| Nehru Cup | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 | 4 |
| Mahinda Rajapaksa Cup | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 0 | 2 |
| AFC Solidarity Cup | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 0 | 2 |
| Palestine International Championship | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| FIFA Series | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Korea Cup | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| King's Cup | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 |
| Indonesia Tournament | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| South Asian Super Cup | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2025 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 5 |
| 2024 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 2023 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2022 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2021 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 2020 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2019 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 9 |
| 2018 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 2016 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 2015 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2014 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 2013 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2012 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2011 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 3 |
| 2010 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2009 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 8 |
| 2008 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 2007 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2006 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2005 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2004 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 3 |
| 2003 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 6 |
| 2002 | 9 | 5 | 55.6% | 3 |
| 2001 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 2000 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 1999 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 1998 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1997 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1996 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 7 |
| 1995 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 1993 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 1991 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1989 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1986 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1984 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1983 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1979 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1972 | 14 | 0 | 0.0% | 14 |
| 1971 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1965 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1964 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1955 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1954 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1953 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1952 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
Over 259 matches (Mar 1952 – Oct 2026), Sri Lanka drew 47 where the draw model expected 50.1 from those particular fixtures — about 3 fewer, or 0.5 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 56.5 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. 4 of the matches carry no model probability and are left out. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.