What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 27 Nov 2006 → 27 Dec 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 5 | 05 Sep 2025 → 17 Nov 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 5 | 14 Oct 2023 → 20 Mar 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 5 | 09 Oct 2015 → 27 Nov 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 5 | 23 Dec 2008 → 07 Jan 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 5 | 10 Aug 1974 → 30 Oct 1974 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 4 | 16 Nov 2011 → 01 Dec 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 4 | 16 Nov 2007 → 14 Dec 2007 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 4 | 27 Nov 2005 → 05 Dec 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 4 | 01 Dec 2002 → 07 Dec 2002 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CECAFA Cup | 71 | 7 | 9.9% | 3 | 4 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 23 | 4 | 17.4% | 4 | 4 |
| Friendly | 14 | 1 | 7.1% | 1 | 2 |
| African Cup of Nations qualification | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 0 | 2 |
| Arab Cup qualification | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 0 | 3 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2025 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2024 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 2023 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2022 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2021 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2019 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2015 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 2013 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2012 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2011 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 2010 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2009 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2008 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2007 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2006 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 2005 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2004 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2003 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2002 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2001 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2000 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1999 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1995 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1994 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1986 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1984 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1983 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1982 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1980 | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | 1 |
| 1978 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1977 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1976 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1974 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1973 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1972 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1969 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1963 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 128 matches (Nov 1963 – Sep 2026), Somalia drew 15 where the draw model expected 26.5 from those particular fixtures — about 11 fewer, or 2.5 standard errors, more of a gap than most, though roughly one subject in twenty looks like this by chance.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 7 times running. A flat league average would have expected 30.0 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. 4 of the matches carry no model probability and are left out. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.