What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18 | 25 Mar 2021 → 12 Jun 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 16 | 08 Sep 2018 → 19 Nov 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 13 | 04 Jun 2016 → 08 Oct 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 13 | 16 Aug 2006 → 21 Nov 2007 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 12 | 18 Nov 2024 → 28 Mar 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 12 | 20 Nov 2022 → 20 Mar 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 12 | 14 Aug 2012 → 15 Oct 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 12 | 03 Sep 2010 → 11 Oct 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 11 | 28 Apr 2004 → 12 Oct 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 10 | 10 Sep 2008 → 14 Oct 2009 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UEFA Euro qualification | 86 | 1 | 1.2% | 10 | 12 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 84 | 2 | 2.4% | 8 | 10 |
| Friendly | 37 | 5 | 13.5% | 2 | 4 |
| UEFA Nations League | 22 | 3 | 13.6% | 4 | 6 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 2025 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2024 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 2023 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2022 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 2021 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 12 |
| 2020 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 2019 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2018 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 2017 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 2016 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 2015 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 2014 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 2013 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 2012 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 2011 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 2010 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 2009 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 2008 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2007 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 9 |
| 2006 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2005 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 2004 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 2003 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 2002 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2001 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 2000 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1999 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1998 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1997 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1996 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1995 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1994 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1993 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 1992 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1991 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1990 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
Over 102 matches (Mar 2015 – Oct 2026), San Marino drew 7 where the draw model expected 13.7 from those particular fixtures — about 7 fewer, or 2.0 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 4 times running. A flat league average would have expected 23.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.