What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 22 Aug 1983 → 15 Sep 1983 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 7 | 08 Jul 1981 → 15 Jul 1981 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 6 | 10 Nov 2016 → 13 Jun 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 5 | 20 Jun 2023 → 17 Nov 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 4 | 18 Mar 2022 → 27 Mar 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 4 | 12 Mar 2002 → 18 Mar 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 4 | 08 Apr 2000 → 15 Apr 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 4 | 31 May 1997 → 21 Jun 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 4 | 03 Nov 1990 → 08 Nov 1990 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 4 | 14 Aug 1969 → 18 Aug 1969 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Pacific Games | 46 | 8 | 17.4% | 2 | 8 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 21 | 3 | 14.3% | 1 | 4 |
| Melanesia Cup | 20 | 3 | 15.0% | 4 | 4 |
| Oceania Nations Cup | 17 | 6 | 35.3% | 1 | 3 |
| Friendly | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 1 | 2 |
| Pacific Games | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 2 | 3 |
| MSG Prime Minister's Cup | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 0 | 3 |
| South Pacific Mini Games | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 2 | 7 |
| Oceania Nations Cup qualification | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 | 4 |
| Merdeka Tournament | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| FIFA Series | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2025 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2024 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 2 |
| 2023 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 2022 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2019 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2017 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2016 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 2014 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2012 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2011 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 2007 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2004 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2003 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 2002 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 2000 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1998 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1997 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1996 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1995 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1994 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1993 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1991 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1990 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1989 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1987 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1985 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1984 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1983 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 1981 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1980 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1979 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1975 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1971 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1969 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1966 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1963 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 162 matches (Aug 1963 – Sep 2026), Papua New Guinea drew 29 where the draw model expected 25.2 from those particular fixtures — about 4 more, or 0.8 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 24.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. 4 of the matches carry no model probability and are left out. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.