What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 221 matches (Jul 2016 – Aug 2026), Orenburg drew 54 where the draw model expected 57.5 from those particular fixtures — about 4 fewer, or 0.5 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 56.8 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | 28 May 2022 → 15 Oct 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 14 | 27 Oct 2024 → 27 Apr 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 11 | 18 Apr 2026 → 02 Aug 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 8 | 07 Mar 2020 → 08 Jul 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 7 | 29 Nov 2025 → 22 Mar 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 7 | 08 Apr 2024 → 12 May 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 7 | 25 Aug 2019 → 20 Oct 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 7 | 16 Mar 2019 → 25 Apr 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 6 | 03 Sep 2023 → 21 Oct 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 6 | 28 Oct 2022 → 18 Mar 2023 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 216 | 54 | 25.0% | 8 | 14 |
| Club Friendlies | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 | 4 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18 | 2 | 11.1% | 11 |
| 2025 | 30 | 8 | 26.7% | 8 |
| 2024 | 30 | 9 | 30.0% | 7 |
| 2023 | 31 | 9 | 29.0% | 6 |
| 2022 | 20 | 2 | 10.0% | 15 |
| 2020 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 8 |
| 2019 | 32 | 7 | 21.9% | 7 |
| 2018 | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 2017 | 15 | 5 | 33.3% | 6 |
| 2016 | 17 | 6 | 35.3% | 6 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 03 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Oct 08:30 |
Lokomotiv Moscow
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 22.5% | ITL · Club Friendlies |
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.