What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | 01 Jun 2012 → 16 Oct 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 12 | 20 Aug 1983 → 15 Sep 1983 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 11 | 03 Apr 2011 → 09 Sep 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 9 | 17 Sep 1972 → 24 Feb 1973 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 7 | 18 Mar 2019 → 18 Jul 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 7 | 09 Mar 2002 → 10 Jul 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 6 | 08 Oct 2023 → 28 Nov 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 6 | 08 Apr 2000 → 15 Jun 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 6 | 09 Dec 1987 → 19 Dec 1987 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 5 | 08 Jun 2016 → 12 Nov 2016 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 76 | 10 | 13.2% | 1 | 4 |
| South Pacific Games | 64 | 5 | 7.8% | 2 | 12 |
| Melanesia Cup | 27 | 2 | 7.4% | 4 | 4 |
| Oceania Nations Cup | 27 | 4 | 14.8% | 1 | 5 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 23 | 4 | 17.4% | 1 | 4 |
| Pacific Games | 16 | 1 | 6.3% | 0 | 7 |
| South Pacific Mini Games | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 3 | 4 |
| Coupe de l'Outre-Mer | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 4 | 4 |
| Pacific Mini Games | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 1 | 3 |
| MSG Prime Minister's Cup | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| Oceania Nations Cup qualification | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 | 4 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2025 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2024 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2023 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 6 |
| 2022 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2019 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 2018 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2017 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 2016 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2013 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2012 | 13 | 0 | 0.0% | 13 |
| 2011 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 11 |
| 2010 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 2008 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2007 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 2004 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2003 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 2002 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 2000 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1998 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1997 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1995 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1994 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1993 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1992 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1991 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1990 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1989 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1988 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1987 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 1983 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 12 |
| 1981 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 1980 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1979 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1978 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1977 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1976 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1975 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1974 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1973 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1972 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1971 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1970 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1969 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1968 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1967 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1966 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1965 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1964 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1963 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1962 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1961 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1959 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1958 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1957 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1955 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1953 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1951 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
Over 274 matches (Sep 1951 – Sep 2026), New Caledonia drew 34 where the draw model expected 44.8 from those particular fixtures — about 11 fewer, or 1.8 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 4 times running. A flat league average would have expected 47.0 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. 4 of the matches carry no model probability and are left out. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.