What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 14 Oct 2024 → 28 Mar 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 12 | 28 Jan 2001 → 12 May 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 7 | 06 Aug 2011 → 16 Jun 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 7 | 28 Mar 1987 → 05 Aug 1987 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 7 | 24 Dec 1962 → 20 Apr 1963 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 6 | 03 Mar 1985 → 29 Aug 1985 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 5 | 02 Sep 2021 → 11 Nov 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 5 | 25 May 2015 → 31 Jul 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 5 | 23 Jul 2008 → 11 Oct 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 5 | 25 Mar 2007 → 17 Jun 2007 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| African Cup of Nations qualification | 90 | 23 | 25.6% | 3 | 4 |
| Friendly | 87 | 18 | 20.7% | 1 | 3 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 53 | 11 | 20.8% | 4 | 6 |
| Indian Ocean Island Games | 33 | 10 | 30.3% | 2 | 4 |
| COSAFA Cup | 32 | 6 | 18.8% | 2 | 3 |
| African Friendship Games | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 | 5 |
| All-African Games | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 0 | 5 |
| African Cup of Nations | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 | 2 |
| COSAFA Cup qualification | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 2025 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 2024 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 2023 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 2022 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2021 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2020 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2019 | 13 | 5 | 38.5% | 2 |
| 2018 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 2017 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 2016 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 3 |
| 2015 | 17 | 5 | 29.4% | 5 |
| 2014 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2012 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2011 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 2010 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2009 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 2008 | 12 | 5 | 41.7% | 5 |
| 2007 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 5 |
| 2006 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2005 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2004 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2003 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 5 |
| 2002 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 2001 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 10 |
| 2000 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 1999 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1998 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 4 |
| 1996 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1993 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1992 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1991 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1990 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1987 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 7 |
| 1985 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1983 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1981 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1980 | 7 | 5 | 71.4% | 1 |
| 1979 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1978 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1973 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1972 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1971 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1970 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1969 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1966 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1965 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1963 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1962 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1961 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1960 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1958 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1957 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1956 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1955 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1954 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1953 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1952 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1951 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1950 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1949 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1948 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1947 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
Over 106 matches (May 2015 – Sep 2026), Madagascar drew 31 where the draw model expected 26.5 from those particular fixtures — about 4 more, or 1.0 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 26.6 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. 2 of the matches carry no model probability and are left out. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.